Rain returns Friday; El Niño update
My thirsty lawn enjoyed that shot of rain on Wednesday.
I can tell, because my lawn is greener this Thursday morning, and the grass has grown a bit.
Even with the sixteen-hundredths of an inch of rain that fell at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport yesterday, our official Twin Cities precipitation total is 1.66 inches below normal since March 1.
Rain returns Friday
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Our next shot at meaningful rain arrives on Friday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System model shows showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms moving across Minnesota Friday and Friday night:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal returning to the radar, not inches of rain!
Mild temps
Our Thursday highs in Minnesota will be mostly in the 50s, with some lower 60s possible in the northwest.
On Friday, much of southern and west-central Minnesota should see 60s:
On Saturday, highs in the 60s are expected over most of our state:
Saturday rain
Our Saturday forecast includes periods of rain, with a few embedded thunderstorms at times.
Most of Minnesota should be dry on Sunday, but scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon over northeastern Minnesota.
NOAA's Global Forecast System forecast model shows the potential rainfall pattern this weekend:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the potential precipitation rate, not the total amount of rainfall.
El Niño returns?
According to NOAA:
El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short.
An updated ENSO forecast was released today.
According to the forecast, issued jointly by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society:
... the forecaster consensus favors ENSO-neutral during April-June with a 60-65% chance. Thereafter, there are increasing odds for El Niño toward the second half of 2017 (~50% chance from approximately August-December). In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to continue through at least the late Northern Hemisphere spring 2017, with increasing chances for El Niño development by late summer and fall
In graphical form, the odds of El Niño (red bar in the graph) rise slightly above 50% during the September-October-November period:
Additional information is available from the ENSO blog.
El Niño conditions often bring warmer than normal temperatures to Minnesota.
Drought update
Drought conditions have ended over much of the western part of United States, but drought continues in many southeastern states.
Severe or greater drought conditions currently cover the smallest total area in the United States since 2010:
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 and 9:35 a.m., plus 4:35 p.m., each Saturday and Sunday.