Steamier, stormier weather is on its way

The weekend was quite delightful with comfortable temperatures and dew points. Monday should be much the same, but with a few more degrees on the thermometer and slightly higher dew points.

High temperatures should range from the mid 70s in the far north to the low 80s in the south and west. The Twin Cities core should reach about 83 this afternoon. The North Shore will be much cooler thanks to a light wind off the big lake.

Thin high clouds have been drifting across the southern half of Minnesota and will filter the sunlight today. Northern Minnesota will have thicker clouds and a few isolated showers mainly this morning.

July 3 - gfk radar
Weather radar from shortly before 8 a.m. today. Grand Forks National Weather Service

The weather forecast for Duluth, northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin for today and tomorrow looks like this:

July 3 - dlh wx story
Holiday weather outlook. Duluth National Weather Service

The general forecast surface weather map for today shows an area of possible thunderstorms for southwestern Minnesota very late today or tonight.

July 3 - Mon fcst map
Forecast surface weather map for today. NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Building heat and humidity

Expect high temperatures on Independence Day tomorrow to range from the mid 70s to low 80s. And you definitely will feel the humidity at your picnic or backyard barbecue as dew points will rise well into the 60s for much of the state.

The hottest day this week is likely to be Thursday with highs ranging from the low 80s to mid 90s and plenty of humidity.

Rounds of thunderstorms

Periods of thunderstorms are likely. Unfortunately, the most recent forecast models have been increasing our chances for thunderstorms for the Fourth of July tomorrow. Thunderstorms are likely to build from west to east tomorrow across mainly the southern half of Minnesota.

Increased forecast precipitable water (vertically-integrated atmospheric moisture available for precipitation) means that heavy rain and rainfalls in excess of an inch are possible.

July 3 - NAM 00Z tomorrow
Forecast 3-hour rainfall ending at 7 p.m. tomorrow from the North American Mesoscale Model. NOAA/College of DuPage

Wednesday will bring a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.

Severe storms Thursday?

Thursday, with its heat and humidity along with an advancing frontal system, could be an interesting day with strong or severe storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center has not yet put us in a risk area for severe weather as they are cautious at the 4-day range, but that could change when the new convective outlooks are issued tonight.

Dry and cooler late this week

Friday, Saturday and Sunday will be cooler with lower humidities.

Hot next week

But if you look at the forecast high temperature map for next Saturday, you will see a great deal of heat building to our west. Note those forecast high temperatures in excess of 100 degrees in Montana. That is the air mass that will be making its way toward Minnesota and the Upper Midwest next week, although I don't expect our temperatures to reach the century mark.

July 3 - Sat fcst highs
Forecast high temperatures for this coming Saturday. NOAA Weather Prediction Center

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