Thunderstorm chances overnight and Thursday; the July snow myth

There's plenty of warm and moist air over Minnesota this Wednesday afternoon.

That means that we have plenty of fuel in place for some scattered thunderstorms this Wednesday evening and overnight.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern:

Of course, some areas that look dry in the loop could see thunderstorms this evening and overnight.

By the way, the color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain

Here's the simulated radar from NOAA's High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model for 1 a.m. Thursday:

It shows scattered thunderstorms between St. Cloud and Duluth, with the main batch of thunderstorms in northwestern and west-central Minnesota.

The exact location timing and location of thunderstorms is hard to pinpoint.

Some areas that do see thunderstorms overnight could see some very strong ones.

Severe thunderstorms are also possible.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you can also read about any watches and warnings in the MPR news live weather blog.

Severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a slight risk of severe weather Wednesday evening and overnight for parts of northern and central Minnesota and the far northern edge of the Twin Cities metro area:

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in the slight risk area, with an isolated severe thunderstorm possible in the marginal risk area. ______________________________________________________________________________

8:30 p.m. Update 

The Storm Prediction Center shifted their slight risk area northward on the Wednesday evening update.

The slight risk of severe thunderstorms will be over northern Minnesota during the overnight hours of Wednesday night into early Thursday morning:

There is a marginal risk for severe weather overnight in central Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area.

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

______________________________________________________________________________

A cold front moves through Minnesota on Thursday, and it could ignite some strong to severe thunderstorms from eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin Thursday afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a slight risk of severe weather Thursday and Thursday night in southeastern Minnesota and part of western Wisconsin:

An enhanced risk of severe weather is shown from Houston county in southeastern Minnesota eastward into Wisconsin.

Enhanced risk means that numerous severe thunderstorms are possible:

Cooler after Thursday

Some spots in southern Minnesota will see highs in the lower 90s Thursday, with mostly 80s in the rest of our favorite state.

On Wednesday, many spots in northern and central Minnesota will top out in the 70s:

Some lower 80s are possible in the south.

Central and southern Minnesota could see lower 80s on Saturday:

In the Twin Cities metro area, we'll probably see weekend highs in the lower 80s.

That's very typical, our average high in the Twin Cities is 83 degrees this time of year.

Fourth of July snow?

Does it snow in Minnesota in July?

The Minnesota State Climatology Office once posted a discussion about July snow.

According to the Climatology Office:

Every six months or so a phone call, an e-mail or letter asks about whether or not it has snowed in Northern Minnesota during the month of July. Most of the time the caller/writer is referencing an event they either witnessed or heard about. The cities vary, sometimes as far south as Brainerd but Ely seems to be a perennial favorite.

The strangest part is the date. It is always snowing on the 4th of July in the town they mention. Oddly few can remember what year it was except to usually narrow it down within a decade or so. Also, much like Sasquatch and the Loch Ness Monster, there aren't any cameras handy to record such a rarity. Requests of a scrap of newspaper that recorded the momentous event have gone unfulfilled. So many unconfirmed reports of July 4th snows have arrived at the office over the years one would think it is a winter wonderland during the "rockets red glare" north of I-94. We often wonder if the people are mistaking Memorial Weekend for the 4th of July.

You can go to sleep tonight knowing that there is no proof that it has ever snowed in Minnesota in July.

The Climatology Office summed it up like this:

We're sure these people saw snowflakes according to the vivid descriptions, usually while sitting watching a parade in a place like Ely. Others also have commented on a July 4th snowfall in the Ely area. Few have been able to pinpoint a year. We've sifted through years of data gathered by National Weather Service observers in the area and have never been a recorded observation of snowfall. While it is possible that it has snowed somewhere in northeast Minnesota sometime in July we have not as of yet found an official record of it.

Maybe the July snowfall records were expunged?