Rainy Saturday afternoon and evening; clearing on Sunday

In contrast to October's reputation as often a rather dry month, widespread rain and thunderstorms will break out Saturday across much of the middle of the country. Flash flooding due to heavy rain is possible later today from northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana to Lower Michigan.

Severe storms today?

The convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has elevated the risk of severe storms to the enhanced level from the Kansas City area northeastward to Chicago and Milwaukee. A less-threatening slight risk is in yellow below and a marginal risk is in the darker green. The light green area including Rochester and the Twin Cities represents possible non-severe thunderstorms later Saturday.

Widespread rain coming our way

Weather radar has been detecting some rain in southwestern and southeastern portions of Minnesota this morning. Much more is on the way.

Increasing areas of rain will overspread most of the state from southwest to northeast today. Expect a soggy Saturday afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible in the southeast.

Few areas of the state need any rain. Many streams and rivers are running high. Flood warnings  continue for low-lying areas along the Minnesota River near Montevideo, the Crow River at Rockford, Delano and Mayer and the North Fork of the Des Moines River at Windom.

Expect high temperatures on Saturday from the upper 40s to upper 50s. The Twin Cities should reach about 58, but rain and an increasing northeast wind will bring falling temperatures by late afternoon.

Rain and wind Saturday night

Periods of rain will continue overnight, driven by a blustery north or northwest wind. Colder air could generate some snowflakes north of the Twin Cities. Expect low temperatures from about 30 in the north to near 40 in the Twin Cities and southeastern Minnesota.

Dry Sunday

Sunday will bring partly cloudy skies and diminishing winds. Look for high temperatures from the mid 40s to mid 50s. The Twin Cities should reach about 53 degrees, just a bit cooler than normal.

Outlook for the Twin Cities area

Indian Summer

My all-purpose definition of Indian Summer is the following: an extended period of unusually warm weather after the first widespread frost. We can check off the "frost" box on our list of criteria. The weather maps indicate that several days of warmth will begin on Monday and really kick into gear on Tuesday when the Twin Cities might reach 70 degrees. Expect the balmy weather to persist through at least Friday when temperatures might climb well into the 70s.

Tropical update 

A tropical disturbance is brushing the northern portion of the Leeward Islands with rain but is unlikely to become a tropical storm in the next few days.

Meanwhile, category 2 Hurricane Ophelia with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph will pass southeast of the Azores late today. Ophelia then will accelerate northeastward toward the British Isles. It is likely to be a powerful hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone as it approaches Ireland on Monday.