Does October snow mean that we’ll have a very snowy winter?
October snow is a wakeup call to some of us.
It reminds us that we need to finish our winter prep, whether that means raking leaves or getting our car winterized.
Snowy winter?
There were reports of one to two inches of snow in parts of the Twin Cities metro area on Friday.
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The snow was melting on contact with the ground in some areas, so snow totals varied quite a bit.
Officially, one-tenth of an inch of snow was measured at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport on Friday, giving us our first official measurable October snow in the Twin Cities since 2009.
October snow is a setback for those of us who cling to autumn, but does this mean that we'll have a very cold and snowy winter?
The Minnesota State Climatology Office looked into it, and posted the answer yesterday:
In short, no. It appears that an October snow is just an October snow, and has no bearing on the remainder of winter. Through 2016, 44 out of 140 Octobers in the Twin Cities have seen at least one day with measurable snow. The winters that followed those instances of snowfall have spanned nearly the entire spectrum of possibilities: dry, wet, snowy, cold, warm, and of course, average. In northern Minnesota, where October snows occur most years, the range of winter conditions is even wider.
The Minnesota State Climatology Office also looked into autumn snow totals, which run through November:
Even a persistently snowy autumn cannot promise us a brutal remainder of winter. In 1991, both Duluth and the Twin Cities had more autumn snow than any other year on record, by wide margins. November was the 12th coldest on record in Duluth and the 7th coldest in the Twin Cities. The remainder of winter, however, was a far cry from what fall had appeared to suggest: snowfall from December onward ranked 93rd at both locations, and the December through February period was 17th warmest at Duluth and 11th warmest in the Twin Cities. Indeed, winters immediately following a snowy fall can be just about anything.
I should mention that meteorological winter is December through February, autumn is September through November.
Snow totals
A new daily snowfall record for October was set in Duluth on Friday, with 10.6 inches:
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
130 AM CDT SAT OCT 28 2017
...RECORD OCTOBER SINGLE DAY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT DULUTH MN...
THE RECORD OCTOBER SINGLE DAY SNOWFALL WAS SET YESTERDAY, OCTOBER
27, 2017 AT DULUTH, MN WITH 10.6 INCHES RECORDED AS OF 113 AM. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 10.0 INCHES SET ON OCTOBER 23, 1933.
IN ADDITION, THE RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL WAS SET FOR OCTOBER
27TH. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 4.3 INCHES IN 2010.
The NWS reported several spots in northeastern Minnesota with over 7 inches of snow on Friday.
Some additional snow reports:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
750 AM CDT SAT OCT 28 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 E ORR 48.06N 92.76W
10/28/2017 M6.3 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AN
ADDITIONAL 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATED. CO-OP OBSERVER
LEIM5.
0600 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 ENE WRIGHT 46.69N 92.95W
10/28/2017 M6.2 INCH CARLTON MN CO-OP OBSERVER
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AN
ADDITIONAL 4.4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATED. CO-OP OBSERVER
WRIM5.
0630 AM SNOW 5 WSW BUTTERNUT 45.99N 90.59W
10/28/2017 M4.0 INCH ASHLAND WI COCORAHS
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. COCORAHS
OBSERVER WI-PR-2.
0700 AM SNOW HOVLAND 47.84N 89.97W
10/28/2017 M2.4 INCH COOK MN COCORAHS
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AN
ADDITIONAL 1.4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATED. COCORAHS
OBSERVER MN-CK-7.
0700 AM SNOW 2 N MOQUAH 46.60N 91.08W
10/28/2017 M3.8 INCH BAYFIELD WI MESONET
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 W CLAM LAKE 46.16N 91.00W
10/28/2017 M6.1 INCH BAYFIELD WI CO-OP OBSERVER
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AN
ADDITIONAL 6.0 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATED. CO-OP OBSERVER
CMKW3.
0700 AM SNOW BRAINERD 46.35N 94.19W
10/28/2017 M2.8 INCH CROW WING MN CO-OP OBSERVER
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AN
ADDITIONAL 0.8 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATED. CO-OP OBSERVER
BRAM5.
0700 AM SNOW ASHLAND 46.58N 90.87W
10/28/2017 M0.2 INCH ASHLAND WI COCORAHS
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. COCORAHS
OBSERVER WI-AS-4.
0715 AM SNOW 5 NE ARNOLD 46.93N 92.03W
10/28/2017 M5.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN COCORAHS
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AN
ADDITIONAL 3.0 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATED. COCORAHS
OBSERVER MN-SL-105.
St. Cloud measured 1.4 inches, Rochester saw 2.6 inches of snow, Eau Claire, WI had 1.9 inches.
Additional snow totals may be posted today by the NWS.
You can also go to the NWS interactive map for snow totals in your area:
Since the snowstorm began more than 24 hours ago, you'll want to click on the "last 48 hours" tab at the top of their interactive map for storm totals.
Cool stretch
Our average high temperature is 52 degrees right now in the Twin Cities metro area.
We won't even be close to that temp Saturday afternoon, with highs only in the upper 30s to around 40 in the metro area.
Most of Minnesota will top out in the 30s Saturday, with a few lower 40s possible in the southwest.
Sunday will be a bit milder, with mostly 40s in Minnesota:
Northeastern Minnesota might top out in the upper 30s on Sunday.
On Monday, 30s will be common in the north with some lower 40s in the south:
Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to be in the upper 30s Tuesday, followed by low to mid 40s Wednesday through Friday.
Precipitation chances
Northern and central Minnesota could see some snow showers Sunday morning, followed by a chance of a rain/snow mix or rain showers in the afternoon.
Southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area could see a sprinkle or flurry Sunday morning, with a chance of scattered rain showers Sunday afternoon.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern for Sunday and Sunday evening:
Green areas in the simulated radar loop indicate rain, blue areas are snow.
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain or snow.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.