50 today? Winter storm watch Friday night into Saturday night
Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 50 degrees on April 1, and it rises to 56 degrees on April 12.
Our peak official metro high temp this April was yesterday's 48 degrees. We'll take a good swing at 50 degrees in the metro area this afternoon, and southeastern Minnesota is expected to reach the lower 50s.
Today will feel like April to some of us!
Sirens will sound this afternoon and evening
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This is severe weather awareness week in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Whether you're at school, work, outdoors or at home when the sirens sound Thursday at 1:45 p.m. and 6:45 p.m., think about where you would seek shelter if it was a real warning.
Details of the drill, from the National Weather Service:
The National Weather Service, Wisconsin Emergency Management, the Minnesota Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, and other state, county and local agencies have come together to host Severe Weather Awareness Week activities.
On Thursday, April 12th, simulated tornado watches and warnings will be issued to test the statewide warning and communications systems. The schedule for April 12th is as follows:
(all times CDT)
1:00 PM: The National Weather Service will issue a simulated tornado watch for Minnesota and Wisconsin.
1:45 PM: The National Weather Service will issue a simulated tornado warning all of Wisconsin. Note that most cities and counties will activate outdoor warning siren systems.
1:45 PM: The National Weather Service will issue a simulated tornado warning for Minnesota counties. Note that most cities and counties will activate outdoor warning siren systems.
2:00 PM: The National Weather Service will issue an "End of Test" message using the Severe Weather Statement product. It should be stated that outdoor warning sirens will not be sounded again for this all clear, nor will there be any warning tone on NOAA Weather Radio.
6:45 PM: Another simulated tornado warning will be issued for Minnesota and Wisconsin counties.
The 6:45 PM warning will be issued by the eight National Weather Service offices that serve Minnesota and Wisconsin. It will be issued as a test of family preparedness in the home and for second shift workers.
For the Minnesota and Wisconsin warnings, a TOR code (tornado warning) will be used to activate the broadcast on NOAA Weather Radios.
This is also a good time to check whether your weather radio is functioning during warnings.
Here's a summary of tornado safety guidelines:
Back to winter
Forecast models are still showing that a strong storm system will bring rain, sleet, heavy snow, and freezing rain to much of Minnesota Friday through Saturday night.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern Friday through Saturday night:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain or snow.
The heaviest snow (one foot or more) is expected over parts of west-central and central Minnesota, but forecast models also show the potential for 6 to 10 inches in the Twin Cities metro area by Saturday night.
The timing of the changeover from rain to snow will be a huge factor in our snow totals.
The Twin Cities metro area is expected to see rain on Friday, with a thunderstorm also possible. The rain could transition to a rain/snow/sleet/freezing rain mix Friday evening and change to all snow Friday night with snow continuing on Saturday.
In central Minnesota and west-central Minnesota, the change to snow or a rain/snow/freezing rain mix could happen by Friday afternoon.
Winter storm watch
The National Weather Service has issued winter storm watches that start on Friday and run into Saturday night for much of central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:
The watch begins Friday afternoon in parts of central Minnesota, and it begins at 10 p.m. Friday evening in the Twin Cities metro area.
Details of the winter storm watch:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
344 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...
.A significant winter storm is expected Friday afternoon into
Saturday evening and will likely include all precipitation types,
strong winds, and blizzard conditions. A Winter Storm Watch is in
effect for Friday afternoon and Saturday for much of central and
southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.
Rain and thunderstorms are expected to develop late Thursday
night and persist for much of the day Friday as temperatures
remain in the mid 30s in central Minnesota to the lower 40s along
the Minnesota Iowa border. Colder air will begin to move into
central Minnesota Friday afternoon and evening, changing the
precipitation to snow across central and western Minnesota. In
addition to the heavy snow, strong winds gusting between 40 to 50
mph will bring the possibility of blizzard conditions to west
central Minnesota. The best chance for whiteouts will be late
Friday night there. The rain will turn to a wintry mix of freezing
rain, sleet, and snow across south central and east central
Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin Friday evening, before
changing to all snow Saturday morning.
Total snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches are possible across
central and west central Minnesota, with totals tapering off to 3
or 6 inches across south central Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin. Total ice and sleet accumulations of one to two tenths
of an inch are possible across the southern third of Minnesota
into west central Wisconsin.
MNZ060-062-063-067>070-074-075-082-WIZ023-025-027-121645-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0009.180414T0300Z-180415T0600Z/
Hennepin-Ramsey-Washington-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Brown-
Nicollet-Watonwan-St. Croix-Dunn-Chippewa-
Including the cities of Minneapolis, St Paul, Stillwater,
Gaylord, Chaska, Shakopee, Hastings, New Ulm, St Peter, St James,
Hudson, Menomonie, and Chippewa Falls
344 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, and ice accumulations of one
tenth to two tenths of an inch are possible.
* WHERE...Portions of west central Wisconsin and central, east
central and south central Minnesota.
* WHEN...From Friday evening through late Saturday night.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Tree
branches could fall. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph could
cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.
Your odds of 6 inches or more of snow are highest to the west:
The freezing rain potential looks like this:
Snowiest April
Our official Twin Cities snow total sits at 10.3 inches this April.
Our snowiest April in the Twin Cities was in 1983, with 21.8 inches.
Here are the top ten monthly snow totals for April in the Twin Cities:
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.