Rain chances Thursday night and Friday; hurricane warning for Hawaii

Many lawns and gardens are still very thirsty.

Our August rainfall total Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport is running 1.80 inches below normal. Large portions of northern and east-central Minnesota have seen very little rain lately.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows an area of moderate drought in northwestern Minnesota:

Areas shaded yellow on the map, including the Twin Cities metro area, are abnormally dry but not yet in drought.

These are the categories used by the U.S. Drought Monitor:

Looking to the east, portions of Wisconsin are either abnormally dry or in drought:

Thankfully, we have some rain in the forecast for much of Minnesota and Wisconsin this Thursday night and Friday, as well as this weekend.

Rain chances

Here's a summary of rain chances:

• Parts of western Minnesota could see scattered showers and thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon and evening.

• In eastern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area, any rain is expected to hold off until after sunset.

• There's a good chance that Minnesota will see some periods of showers and thunderstorms overnight Thursday night into Friday morning.

• There will be a lingering shower/thunderstorm chance in eastern Minnesota Friday afternoon.

• For the Twin Cities metro area, the best chance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend will tend to be overnight Saturday night and late on Sunday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Thursday evening through Friday afternoon:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Much of Minnesota will have highs in the upper 70s this Thursday afternoon. The Twin Cities metro area and a few other spots could creep into the lower 80s.

Friday will be cool, with widespread 70s and even some 60s in the northeast:

Weekend highs are expected to be in the 80s over southern and central Minnesota, with 70s far north. The Twin Cities metro area will probably see middle 80s both days.

Our average high this time of year is 80 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.

Hurricane Lane

Hurricane Lane is a Category 4 hurricane this Thursday morning, with max winds of 130 mph.

Hawaii is bracing for Lane's damaging winds and heavy rains, and hurricane warnings have been issued from Oahu to the Big Island of Hawaii.

Here's the projected track of the center of Hurricane Lane:

The latest public advisory from NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu:

BULLETIN

Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 35A

NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018

200 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...LANE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE TRACKING TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN

ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.5N 157.3W

ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII

ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Oahu

* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and

Kahoolawe

* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult

or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before

the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,

conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor

the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by the National Weather Service office in

Honolulu Hawaii.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located by

satellite and radar near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 157.3 West.

Lane is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This

general motion is expected to continue today, with a gradual turn

toward the north-northwest. On Friday, a turn toward the north is

anticipated as Lane's forward motion slows even more. A turn back

toward the west is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the

center of Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian

Islands later today through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher

gusts. Lane is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next

day or so, with more significant weakening thereafter. Lane is

expected to remain a hurricane as it approaches the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140

miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.02 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big

Island beginning later this morning, with hurricane conditions

expected in some areas by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are

expected to begin over portions of Maui county later today,

with hurricane conditions expected in some areas by Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Oahu late

tonight, with hurricane conditions expected Friday into Friday

night.

RAINFALL: Rain bands from Hurricane Lane will continue to overspread

the Hawaiian Islands. Excessive rainfall associated with Lane will

impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend, leading to significant

and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected

to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with

localized amounts in excess of 30 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by Lane will

severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days.

These swells will produce very large and damaging surf along exposed

west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged period of high surf

will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large

breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet

above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near

the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves.

The NWS Honolulu office will be posting updated localized forecasts for Hawaii.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.