Arctic chill on Monday; plowable snow next weekend?

At least it was sunny on Sunday.

Arctic air was entrenched over Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Sunday, and some records were tied and broken.

The Sunday high temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was zero, and the morning low was 13 below zero:

The morning low tied our record March 3 low temp in the Twin Cities, and our high temp was 35 degrees colder than our average high this time of year.

The high temp of zero degrees was 6 degrees colder than our previous record cold high temp for this date in the Twin Cities, which was set way back in 1873!

Rochester, Minn. tied their March 3 record low at 17 below zero.

Where do we go from here?

Temperature trends

Low temps late Sunday night/early Monday will be in the teens below zero across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

There'll be enough wind to drop wind chills into the -25 to -35 range in most areas.

Wind chill advisories have been issued for Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

The wind chill advisories in western Minnesota expire at noon on Monday. The wind chill advisories in the Twin Cities metro area, the remainder of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin expire at 9 a.m. Monday:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

228 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2019

...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS INTO MONDAY MORNING...

.Dangerous wind chills of 25 below zero to 35 below zero will

persist into Monday morning.

A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect for all of central and

southern Minnesota into west central Wisconsin through Monday

morning.

Dress in layers, cover exposed skin, and bring warm clothes with

you when traveling in case you get stranded. Frostbite and

hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

MNZ045-052-053-060>063-068>070-078-WIZ014>016-023>028-040500-

/O.CON.KMPX.WC.Y.0011.190304T0200Z-190304T1500Z/

Kanabec-Isanti-Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-

Scott-Dakota-Goodhue-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-

Chippewa-Eau Claire-

Including the cities of Mora, Cambridge, Center City,

Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chaska, Shakopee,

Hastings, Red Wing, Osceola, Rice Lake, Ladysmith, Hudson,

River Falls, Prescott, Menomonie, Durand, Chippewa Falls,

and Eau Claire

228 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING

TO 9 AM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills of 25 below to 35 below

zero.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Wisconsin and

east central and southeast Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The dangerously cold wind chills could

cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will

combine to create low wind chills. Frostbite and hypothermia can

occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and

gloves.

"This evening" in the NWS advisory message refers to Sunday evening.

The winter weather advisory in portions of southwestern Minnesota is for blowing snow and reduced visibilities Monday afternoon.

Monday highs will be in the single digits:

Temps ramp up as we go through the rest of the work week. Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to reach the mid-teens on Tuesday and around 20 on Wednesday, followed by lower 20s Thursday and upper 20s on Friday. We could top out in the 30s next weekend. The European (ECMWF) forecast model shows highs in the low to mid 30s next weekend in the Twin Cities:

The European model uses Celsius degrees, so a temp of 2 degrees in their model is equal to 35.6 degrees Fahrenheit, and 1 degree is equal to 33.8 degrees Fahrenheit. Dates are day/month/year, so 09/03/2019 is March 9.

Snow chances

A chance of light snow showers starts Monday morning in northern Minnesota, then spreads southward during the afternoon. The Twin Cities metro area could see some light snow showers anytime from about mid-afternoon into early Monday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential snow pattern Monday and Monday evening:

Accumulations are expected to be light in areas that do see some snow.

There's the potential for a plowable snow in southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area Saturday and Saturday night. Evidence of that snow or a wintry mix shows up in the European model and the American GFS model.

The experimental (FV3-GFS) version of NOAA's Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain or snow.

You can see that the metro area could be near the northern edge of the heavy snow, so check back for updates as we go through the week.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

You can check the latest forecasts from the NWS offices in the Twin Cities,  Grand Forks, N.D., Sioux Falls, S.D., La Crosse, Wis., and Duluth.

I hope that you have a good week!