Rivers keep rising; sprinkle and flurry chance on Sunday

It was a bright and sunny Saturday, but cool temps and gusty winds made it feel like February.

Highs will be a few degrees warmer on Sunday, but some of us will see a sprinkle or a flurry.

So it goes in March.

Temperature trends

Sunday highs will be in the 30s in northern Minnesota, with mostly 40s central and south:

Our average high this time of year is 49 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.

Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to reach the upper 40s Monday, followed by lower 50s Tuesday and around 50 on Wednesday. We could see upper 40s Thursday and lower 50s Friday.

Rain and snow chances

Some light snow showers are expected to move into northwestern Minnesota Sunday morning, then spread southeastward and mix with and change over to light rain showers Sunday afternoon.  We could see a sprinkle/flurry in Twin Cities metro area late Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon.

The models don't agree on our next meaningful rain.  Some forecast models keep us mostly dry this week.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows some rain in parts of southern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon into Thursday:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain or snow.

We’ll see if the forecast models shift the precipitation as we get closer to Wednesday. As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

River level update

Many locations along our Minnesota rivers remain at major or moderate flood stage. There are numerous flood warnings in effect. You can get flood warning updates by clicking on any location on the National Weather Service Twin Cities website. Areas with flood warnings are shaded green on the NWS main page; here’s how the map looked Saturday evening:

The latest flood warnings and flood outlooks for northwestern Minnesota can be found on the NWS Grand Forks, N.D. site. Here’s how their map looked Saturday evening:

The Mississippi River at St. Paul remains at major flood stage this Saturday evening. Here’s the NWS summary for that location, which was issued Saturday morning:

1013 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

The Flood Warning continues for

The Mississippi River at St. Paul.

* until further notice.

* At 9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 19.4 feet.

* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.

* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.

* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 20.0 feet by

early Monday morning then begin falling.

* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Warner Road may become impassable due to

high water.

* Impact...At 17.5 feet...Harriet Island begins to become submerged.

* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Portions of the Lilydale park area begin to

experience flooding.

* Impact...At 13.3 feet...Water begins to encroach on Water St.

You can check for an updated flood statement here.

You can click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service  (AHPS) site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels. Some locations list levels in feet above sea level, others list levels in feet above a local reference point.

Here’s the Saturday evening hydrograph for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:

The 20 foot level early Monday would be the eighth highest Mississippi River level ever recorded at the St. Paul gauge:

Here’s a Saturday evening look at the flooding at Harriet Island in St. Paul:

The pavilion on Harriet Island is surrounded by water:

A look at Raspberry Island flooding:

A broader view, which includes the western side of Raspberry Island and the Wabasha Street Bridge in St. Paul:

To the east, the St. Croix River continues to rise. Here’s the Saturday evening hydrograph for the St. Croix River at Stillwater:

The updated hydrograph for the Minnesota River at New Ulm shows a rise:

Projected river levels are updated on a regular basis, so check back to the AHPS site and the NWS point forecasts for the latest info on the rivers near you. The NWS also posts some flooding details here.

If you’d like to scroll through hydrographs along a certain river, check here.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.