Unsettled weather through July 4; cooler, less humid this weekend

It's not unusual to have scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast this time of year. It's good to remember that we often have a lot of dry hours between rain events.

Shower and thunderstorm chances

Scattered showers and thunderstorms in northwestern Minnesota Wednesday morning are expected to spread southeastward Wednesday afternoon.

A batch of scattered showers and thunderstorms is also expected to spread northward from Iowa. Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will share a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms by late Wednesday afternoon into the evening and overnight.

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows marginal risk of severe weather through Wednesday night for most of Minnesota, including the far western edge of the Twin Cities metro area:

A very small part of northwestern Minnesota is included in the SPC slight risk area that covers much of South Dakota and far southern North Dakota.

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible and marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible:

SPC updates their severe weather outlooks several times each day and night.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

You can see the recent local NWS radar loop here.

The northeastern Minnesota radar loop and the northwestern Minnesota radar loop are also available. The recent radar loop for southwestern Minnesota can be found here, and the southeastern Minnesota loop here.

The best chance of showers and thunderstorms on the Fourth of July is expected to be in the morning, with lower shower/thunderstorm chances in the afternoon and evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Thursday through Thursday evening:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain. It will rain in some areas that look dry in the NAM loop, but the loop shows the patchy rain pattern within the model.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible on Friday.

Temperature trends 

Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have highs in the 80s this Wednesday afternoon, with some 70s northwest. Metro area highs will tend to be in the upper 80s. Our average high temp is 83 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities metro area.

Most locations will top out in the 80s on the Fourth of July, with 70s in far northern Minnesota:

Friday highs are a few degrees cooler:

Weekend highs in the Twin Cities metro area are expected to be around 80 degrees both days, and slightly drier air will settle over us.

Fourth of July weather

The Minnesota State Climatology Office has compiled some interesting info on July 4 climatology, where they note these facts regarding Twin Cities temperatures:

2012 came in as the warmest July 4th on record, at 101 degrees, during an extremely warm early July. 1967 recorded the lowest high temperature, at 58 degrees, which was the last time the high temperature has stayed below 70 degrees.

July 4, 2019 is the 20th anniversary of the derecho that knocked down millions of trees in Minnesota's Boundary Waters Wilderness.

Here is an MPR News post from the 10th anniversary of the storms. A meteorological study of the Boundary Waters Blowdown can be found here.