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Marvelous Monday weather; humid with a shower/t-storm chance on Tuesday

No extreme heat is in sight

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We could use some dry weather to recover from Saturday night’s soaking rains.  We’ll be rain-free on Monday, with very comfortable temps and dew points.  

Temperature trends

Monday afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A few spots in the Twin Cities metro area could top 80. Our average high temp is 80 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities .

If you like summery weather, you’ll like the upward tick in temperatures on Tuesday:

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Tuesday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Dew points are expected to rise into the 70s by Tuesday afternoon across central and southern Minnesota:

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Forecast dew point temps for 2 p.m. on Tuesday
National Weather Service

That’ll feel really summery!  Canadian high pressure will arrive Wednesday and linger through Thursday, along with cooler temps and low humidity levels.  

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday, then hit 80 on Friday.  An early look at next weekend shows highs in the lower 80s.

There isn’t any really hot weather in sight.  We could even see some cool days during the last week of August. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center shows a tendency toward cooler than normal temperatures across much of Minnesota during the August 26 through September 1 time frame:

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Temperature outlook August. 26 thru September 1
NWS Climate Prediction Center

We’ll see if that changes.

Tuesday rain chance

Some of us could see a shower or a thunderstorm on Tuesday.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Tuesday and Tuesday evening:

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NOAA NAM simulated radar for Tuesday and Tuesday evening
Tropicaltidbits.com

At this point, I’d pay more attention to the scattered nature of the rain pattern, rather than the exact location of the rain.

Saturday night rain totals

As noted in an earlier Updraft blog, the heaviest rain amounts Saturday evening and overnight Saturday night extended from portions of west-central and southwestern Minnesota into parts of the Twin Cities metro area:

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24-hour rainfall totals through 7 A.M. Sunday, August 18
NOAA/NWS

The yellow and beige areas received between 1.50 and 2.50 inches of rain. 1.74 inches of rain fell overnight Saturday night at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. Our official 2019 precipitation total stands at 29.64 inches at MSP airport.  Precipitation includes rainfall plus the water content of our snowfalls. According to the Twin Cities NWS office, this is the second-highest precipitation total that we’ve ever seen in the Twin Cities from Jan. 1 through Aug. 18.

Roseville came in with a whopping 3.11 inch rain total Saturday night:

That’s a lot of rain in a very short time!