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A number of U.S. business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Trump's economic policies that they expect a recession in the U.S. by the end of 2021.

Thirty-four percent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report being released Monday, said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. That's up from 25 percent in a survey taken in February. Only 2 percent of those polled expect a recession to begin this year, while 38 percent predict that it will occur in 2020.

 about a recession, offering an optimistic outlook for the economy after last week's steep drop in the financial markets and saying on Sunday, "I don't think we're having a recession." A strong economy is key to the Republican president's 2020 reelection prospects.

The economists have previously expressed concern that Trump's tariffs and higher budget deficits could eventually dampen the economy.

 on goods from many key U.S. trading partners, from China and Europe to Mexico and Canada. Officials maintain that the tariffs, which are taxes on imports, will help the administration gain more favorable terms of trade. But U.S. trading partners have simply retaliated with tariffs of their own.

Trade between the U.S. and China, the two biggest global economies, has plunged. Trump decided last Wednesday to 

 tariffs on about 60 percent of an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, granting a reprieve from a planned move that would have extended duties to nearly everything the U.S. buys from China.

 signaled the possibility of a U.S. recession, adding to concerns over the ongoing trade tensions and word from Britain and Germany that their economies are shrinking.

The economists surveyed by the NABE were skeptical about prospects for success of the latest round of U.S.-China trade negotiations. Only 5 percent predicted that a comprehensive trade deal would result, 64 percent suggested a superficial agreement was possible and nearly 25 percent expected nothing to be agreed upon by the two countries.

The 226 respondents, who work mainly for corporations and trade associations, were surveyed between July 14 and Aug. 1. That was before the White House announced 10% tariffs on the additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, the 

 below the seven-yuan-to-$1 level for the first time in 11 years and the Trump administration formally labeled China a currency manipulator.

As a whole, the business economists' recent responses have represented a rebuke of the Trump administration's overall approach to the economy.

Still, for now, most economic signs appear solid. Employers are adding jobs at a steady pace, the unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low and consumers are optimistic. U.S. retail sales figures out last Thursday showed that they jumped in July by the most in four months.

The survey showed a steep decline in the percentage of economists who found the $1.5 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade "too stimulative" and likely to produce higher budget deficits that should be reduced, to 51 percent currently from 71 percent in August 2018.

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A number of U.S. business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Trump's economic policies that they expect a recession in the U.S. by the end of 2021.


President Trump boards Air Force One on Friday

Economists survey: 34 percent expect a U.S. recession in 2021

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