Cooler but still well above normal this week

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Tropical Storm Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean within the next three days, the National Hurricane Center says, issuing warnings to Barbados and other islands in the storm's path. Puerto Rico, Haiti and other areas are also watching its progress.

The storm "is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola" this week, 

Dorian is forecast to grow into a lower-level Category 1 hurricane, meaning its sustained winds would narrowly top the 74-mph threshold for a hurricane. For now, forecasters say, the storm remains small, projecting tropical-storm-force winds no more than 45 miles from its center.

Dorian currently has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Just before noon ET on Monday, it was some 135 miles east-southeast of Barbados, moving to the west-northwest at around 14 mph. The storm is expected to follow a path that could take it through a number of islands.

, "It should be noted that compact tropical cyclones like Dorian are often challenging to predict." 

As of Monday morning, Dorian was showing signs of becoming better organized, with satellite images showing a "cloud pattern consisting of a compact central dense overcast and some broken outer bands," the NHC says.

Despite that development, the storm's power is expected not to intensify, as Dorian will likely be sapped by surrounding areas of dry air.

While Dorian could achieve hurricane status by the time it approaches Hispaniola in roughly three days, the island's rough terrain and other conditions are expected to significantly weaken the storm.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours. Dorian could bring 3 to 8 inches of rain to those areas through Tuesday.

On Monday, France upgraded its alert for Martinique, declaring a storm watch instead of a warning.

A storm watch — meaning dangerous conditions could arrive within 48 hours — is in effect for Dominica, Martinique, Grenada and nearby islands. 

Weather and Climate News

Bill Chappell

Author

Dorian is currently forecast to grow into a lower-level Category 1 hurricane, meaning its sustained winds would narrowly top the 74-mph threshold for a hurricane.

Tropical storm Dorian menaces Barbados, with Puerto Rico ahead

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