Severe storms possible Monday night; Hurricane Dorian blasts Grand Bahama Island

The major weather headline for Minnesota this Labor Day is for the likelihood of severe weather this evening and overnight into early Tuesday.

A complex weather disturbance tracking our way from the Canadian prairies is unusually strong for late summer.

The Storm Prediction Center has posted an enhanced risk of severe weather (orange area below) generally from west central Minnesota to the Twin Cities area and well into west central Wisconsin. The enhanced risk area is surrounded by a lesser slight risk area (yellow) and then an even lesser marginal risk (dark green).

Strong thunderstorms have already produced severe wind and hail in North Dakota Monday afternoon. The airport in Jamestown, N.D. recorded a wind gust of 85 mph at 4:46 p.m.

Severe storms are approaching the Fargo-Moorhead area as of shortly before 6 p.m.

These severe storms are racing southeastward toward west central Minnesota so a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for some western parts of the state until 11 p.m.

Strong to severe storms are likely to track toward the east-southeast during the evening and overnight, mainly along and north of the I-94 corridor.

The mesoscale convective system that will continue to develop is likely to strengthen after sunset when the nocturnal low level jet stream kicks in.

Any severe potential for the Twin Cities area will hold off until well after sunset, probably toward midnight as just an approximation.

Behind the cold front Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday will bring drying conditions except for some lingering rain mainly in the Arrowhead. It will for sure be a cool and quite breezy day. High temperatures are likely to be just from the upper 50s to mid 60s in the north to mid 70s in the south. The Twin Cities should reach about 75.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny and pleasant.

Wednesday night and Thursday could bring showers.

Life-threatening Hurricane Dorian

Dorian, now a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, has been pounding Grand Bahama Island with devastating wind and catastrophic flooding all day Monday. By late afternoon Central Time the eyewall was nearly stationary along the north shore of the island.

Dorian is forecast to begin making a gradual turn to the right Monday night. That will bring it dangerously close to Florida’s east coast from late Tuesday through Wednesday. The forecast is for the eyewall, where the max winds are found, likely to remain offshore. But, as the cone of uncertainty in the forecast below indicates, a slight wobble could spread very damaging winds ashore. Nevertheless, coastal areas of eastern Florida should be prepared for strong winds, heavy rain and powerful storm surges.

One piece of good news is that the storm’s extremely slow movement has likely caused upwelling of cooler ocean water that will cause it to weaken a bit before approaching Florida.

Then a turn to the northeast should send Dorian almost parallel to the shores of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.