Strong storms possible Monday night; Hurricane Dorian blasts Grand Bahama Island
Labor Day will bring us rather pleasant holiday weather for the most part, sort of a calm-before-the-nighttime-storms day.
A mix of clouds and sun will dot the skies. Some showers and thunderstorms will break out in southwestern and northwestern Minnesota, mainly during the afternoon.
Look for afternoon high temperatures in the 60s in northeastern Minnesota and 70s in most of the rest of the state. The Twin Cities should warm to about 78 with a hint of humidity thanks to dew points in the low 60s.
Severe storms possible Monday night
The stage is being set for an outbreak of severe storms just as the Labor Day weekend closes out. A low pressure system developing off to our northwest will rev up some rather strong thunderstorms in North Dakota and send them into northwestern Minnesota by Monday evening.
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The strongest storms will develop into what meteorologists call a mesoscale convective system. That means a large and potentially nasty cluster of thunderstorms that often become severe. In this case, we expect that storm system to race southeast across Minnesota Monday evening and night. The greatest risk from these storms is for damaging winds because of their rapid speed.
The Storm Prediction Center has posted a risk of severe storms for much of Minnesota. The greatest risk, the orange enhanced risk area below, should be across central Minnesota generally from the Fargo-Moorhead area to St. Cloud and the Twin Cities before reaching west-central Wisconsin.
Here is a look at the approximate timing of when strong storms might reach your area.
Turning cooler
Cooler temperatures will come our way after the thunderstorms depart.
Tuesday will be a cool and quite breezy day with highs from the low 60s north to the 70s south. Areas of rain might persist in the Arrowhead.
Wednesday will be cool and dry.
Devastating Hurricane Dorian
Hurricane Dorian has been causing catastrophic damage to Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas overnight. Dorian remains a devastating Category 5 storm, the highest category, with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph this Monday morning. Those max winds are found in the eyewall, which has been barely moving westward at only 1 mph along the length of the island.
Dorian’s location relative to the U.S. is 120 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. How close it comes to the Florida coast hinges on how soon it makes a gradual turn the northwest and then north.
Steering currents aloft are very weak but forecast models are continuing to keep the eye offshore for Florida. Here is the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center:
Regardless of the exact track, areas from Florida to North Carolina are likely to be impacted by battering winds, heavy rain and inundating storm surges.
Dorian is forecast to weaken gradually as it approaches the U.S. I have some special concern for the Outer Banks of North Carolina. That narrow string of low-lying islands sticks out from the coast where it is quite vulnerable to tropical storms. And the OBX, as those barrier islands are referred to fondly, have few exit points for residents and vacationers.