Cold front will dry us out Tuesday; Hurricane Dorian begins to creep northwest toward Florida

Monday evening’s intense squall line raced from North Dakota southeast down the Interstate 94 corridor and brought hail, damaging wind, heavy rain and continuous lightning through central Minnesota and the Twin Cities area.

Damage could easily have been worse, as has occurred many times in the past with that weather scenario. Maybe we are too late in the severe weather season for storms to get fully ramped up.

Many leftover showers and thunderstorms with plenty of lightning are tracking across Wisconsin and northern Illinois Tuesday morning.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are lingering in northeastern Minnesota on the back side of the parent low-pressure center.

Drying, breezy Tuesday

Tuesday’s forecast weather map shows a cold front pushing the warm, muggy air off to our east.

Expect cooler, drier weather today for most of the state. High temperatures should range from just the mid 50s in parts of the far north around International Falls and Ely to the upper 70s in the southeast around Rochester and Winona.

The Twin Cities should reach about 74 with some breaks in the clouds.

Gusty winds will increase behind the cold front. Expect northwesterly gusts to around 30 mph or more to push much lower dew points across the state.

Placid Wednesday

Winds will become nearly calm for Wednesday as relatively cool, dry high pressure slides in from the northwest. High temperatures are likely to have a rather narrow range from the mid-60s to low 70s. The Twin Cities should have a high around 70.

Next chance of rain?

A scattering of showers and thunderstorms will pop up Wednesday night and into Thursday, mainly across the northern half of the state. Severe weather is unlikely.

Catastrophic Dorian update

Deadly Hurricane Dorian, which pounded Grand Bahama Island on Monday, remained stationary and continued its devastation overnight.

As of Tuesday morning, Dorian remains a Category 3 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.

Dorian is now beginning its anticipated slow movement toward the northwest and will approach the Florida coast around the Melbourne area late on Tuesday.

The cone of uncertainty around the forecast storm center location represents the uncertainty as to exactly where that center will go, not the width of the hurricane.

While the intense eye region of the storm is forecast to remain offshore, high winds and dangerous storm surges are likely for eastern Florida. A hurricane warning has been posted for most of Florida’s east coast.

Dorian will continue to produce torrential rain. Fortunately, most of the greatest amounts of rainfall are likely to fall into the Atlantic Ocean.

But note on both the track forecast map above and the five-day rainfall forecast into Sunday morning below that Dorian’s eye and very heavy rain might clip coastal areas of the Carolinas. The vulnerable Outer Banks of North Carolina seem to be at greatest risk.