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A summery Friday, with a shower or thunderstorm possible

Showers and thunderstorms at times on Saturday; Sunday is looking drier

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Most of us don’t need any more rain right now.

Heavy rains prompted a flash flood warning in the southeastern part of Faribault County in south-central Minnesota Friday morning. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in Minnesota and western Wisconsin through Friday night.

The National Weather Service noted on Thursday that Rochester, Minn., has already set an annual precipitation record, with more than three months left in the year:

Precipitation includes rainfall plus the water content of the snowfalls this year.

Thunderstorm chances

The scattered showers and thunderstorms that develop Friday and Friday evening are expected to become more numerous late Friday night and Saturday.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Saturday and Saturday night:

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NOAA NAM simulated radar Saturday through Saturday evening.
Tropicaltidbits.com

It’ll rain in some areas that look dry in the loop, but the loop depicts the general rain pattern within the NAM model. As always, updated weather information can be heard on the MPR network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Sunday looks dry in roughly the southern half of Minnesota with a chance of scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms in the north.

Severe weather outlook

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk of severe weather through Friday night in portions of west-central and northwestern Minnesota, and a marginal risk of severe weather to the east and south:

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Severe weather outlook Friday and Friday night
NWS Storm Prediction Center

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, while marginal risk indicates that an isolated severe storm is possible. Around mid-afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center will update the outlook for the rest of Friday.

A marginal risk of severe weather is indicated over Minnesota and western Wisconsin Saturday and Saturday night:

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Severe weather outlook Saturday and Saturday night
NWS Storm Prediction Center

Temperature trends

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is only 70 degrees this time of year. The metro area and much of central and southern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin will top out in the 80s this Friday, with mostly 70s in northern Minnesota.

Saturday highs will be mainly in the 70s:

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Saturday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Highs in the 60s cover northern and central Minnesota on Sunday:

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Sunday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Twin Cities Metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 70s Monday and Tuesday, followed by 70 Wednesday and upper 60s on Thursday.

Fall colors

This is very nice:

The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources has issued a fall color report that shows several areas of substantial fall color in northern Minnesota:

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Fall colors Friday
Minnesota Department of Natural Resources

Keep in mind that the fall color report includes all deciduous trees, not just maples. The brilliant fall colors will expand across the remainder of Minnesota in the next couple of weeks.

Hurricane Jerry could be near Bermuda next week

It’s great news that Hurricane Jerry is expected to pass well to the north of Puerto Rico this weekend. The National Hurricane Center forecasts this track for the center of Jerry over the next few days: 

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Forecast track of Hurricane Jerry
NWS National Hurricane Center

Here’s a portion of the Friday morning update from the National Hurricane Center:

On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. 

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to continue today, but Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during the next few days. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.