Highs in the 40s to start the week; rain or snow for Minn. on Wednesday?

Thanksgiving temperature outlook

Most people weren’t amused by the arctic chill of last Monday. The official Twin Cities high was 18 degrees that day, and gusty winds made it feel even chillier. Our temperatures will be much more comfortable this Monday.

Temperature trends

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 40 degrees this time of year. We’ll do slightly better than that this Monday, with highs in the 40s across roughly the southern half of Minnesota plus a few spots in the far northwest and highs in the 30s elsewhere in Minnesota plus western Wisconsin.

On Tuesday, highs in the 40s will be common across the southern half of Minnesota plus western Wisconsin:

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Tuesday forecast highs
National Weather Service

The 40s linger over southern Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin on Wednesday:

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Wednesday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Twin Cities metro area highs retreat to the mid 30s on Thursday and Friday.

Rain or a mix for some areas on Monday

West-central and southwestern Minnesota could see some light rain showers on Monday, with a potential for a bit of sleet, light freezing rain and a few snowflakes early in the day. The Twin Cities metro area will have a chance of scattered light rain showers late Monday afternoon and Monday evening. A wintry mix could move into far northern Minnesota late Monday afternoon, with that mix expanding into central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin Monday evening.

Listen for updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Wednesday/Wednesday night rain and snow potential

A low pressure system is expected to pass to our south Wednesday into early Thursday, spinning moisture over much of Minnesota and Wisconsin. There could be some snow on the northern edge of this system, if it pulls in enough cold air. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Wedneday morning through Thursday morning:

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GFS precipitation rate Wednesday through Thursday morning
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

This track would bring mostly rain to the Twin Cities, with some snow mixed in as the low pressure system pulls away late Wednesday night and early Thursday. Check updates…it’ll be interesting to see how the storm track and rain/snow distribution of this system change as we get closer to Wednesday.

Thanksgiving week

Thanksgiving is Nov. 28 this year, and our average Twin Cities high temp is 34 degrees on that date. The eight-to-fourteen day outlook (Nov. 25 through Dec. 1) from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center doesn’t indicate a trend toward warmer than normal or colder than normal temps for Minnesota and Wisconsin:

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Temperature outlook Nov. 25 through Dec. 1
NWS Climate Prediction Center

The cooler than normal portion of the outlook is well to the west and the south. Near-normal temps would be OK with me on Thanksgiving!