Frigid temperatures this weekend prompt cold weather advisories

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In the Twin Cities metro area, we see an average of 9.3 inches of snow during the month of November. So far this November, we’ve only tallied 1.6 inches of snow at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. 

I guess we’re overdue for some significant snow!

Forecast models are coming into agreement on a significant winter storm for much of southern and central Minnesota and western Wisconsin this Tuesday into early Wednesday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows this precipitation pattern Tuesday through Wednesday:

The storm track could change a bit as we get closer to Tuesday, but it’s safe to say that there will be a fairly wide swath of significant snow.

The National Weather Service has posted a winter storm watch for much of central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

The winter storm watch starts at 6 p.m. Tuesday in the Twin Cities and west-central Wisconsin, and it continues until noon on Wednesday. The watch is for a combination of heavy snow, strong winds and difficult travel conditions. 

The Twin Cities could see 5 to 7 inches of snow from this storm. The winter storm watch starts at 9 a.m. Tuesday and runs until 6 a.m. Wednesday in southwestern Minnesota. The winter storm watch starts at 3 p.m. Tuesday in Mankato and runs to noon on Wednesday.

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You can click on your location at the Twin Cities NWS 

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The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model (ECMWF) is also showing substantial snow for the Twin Cities Tuesday evening into early Wednesday: 

Don’t be alarmed by those temperatures, they’re using the Celsius temperature scale, not our familiar Fahrenheit scale.

The Euro model gives Minneapolis a total of 14.6 millimeters (equal to .575 inches) of water in the snow that falls from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. At a 10-to-1 snow-to-water ratio, it would yield 5.75 inches of snow. 

The European model, like the GFS model, shows the heaviest snow Tuesday evening through the overnight hours of Tuesday night.

Snow-to-water ratios will vary, depending on the temperature profile in the atmosphere.

Wintry mix Sunday night and Monday up north

I should mention that far northern Minnesota will be dealing with a wintry mix of rain, snow and possibly some light freezing rain overnight Sunday night and on Monday. Take care if you are traveling in that area:

Note: “tonight” in the NWS graphic refers to Sunday evening and the overnight hours of Sunday night.

The GFS model shows another strong winter storm moving into Minnesota late Friday and lingering into Saturday. The heaviest snow from that one may fall over central and northern Minnesota, with a rain/snow mix and lighter snow accumulations in the south. 

A small shift in that storm track could move the heavy snow band. Stay tuned.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Ron Trenda

Author

Get ready for some heavy snow and strong winds Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. The snow begins Tuesday morning in southwestern Minnesota, and arrives in the Twin Cities metro area by Tuesday evening. We have details on the winter storm watch that begins on Tuesday, and the potential snow amounts.

Heavy snow and strong winds Tuesday P.M. into early Wednesday; difficult travel

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