Plodding winter storm with heavy snow and sleet for the weekend

A complex, powerful winter storm is building northward into Minnesota and will hang around into Sunday with heavy snow, sleet, rain and wind. Thunderstorms are possible in southern parts of the state.

Forecast models now keeping mild rain-producing air farther south

A shift in the latest forecast models indicates that the surge of mild air on the eastern side of this storm is not likely to reach as far northward as earlier model runs predicted. That means more snow and less mixed precipitation is in the forecasts for central and southern Minnesota through Sunday.

Here it comes

Mixed precipitation began spreading from Iowa into southernmost Minnesota later Friday afternoon. The bright yellow colors on the radar image below look like heavy rain but are more likely wet snow. Wet snowflakes can look much like huge raindrops on radar.

This snow and mixed precipitation will spread northward across the state Friday night.

Winter storm warnings for heavy snow and sleet will go into effect Friday night from the Twin Cities northward.

A winter weather advisory for lesser amounts of snow and sleet will be in effect for southern Minnesota including Scott and Dakota counties in the southern Twin Cities suburbs. Light freezing rain is possible as well.

Snowy Saturday into Sunday

Widespread heavy snow is likely to continue for mainly northern and central Minnesota through Saturday and Saturday night before exiting on Sunday. Snowfall totals of around 8 to 14 inches are forecast for much of that area except for lesser amounts near Canada.

A blizzard warning will be in effect for Saturday into Sunday for the Duluth area and southern Lake County near Lake Superior. Lakeshore flooding from huge waves is likely as well.

Impressive snowfalls of 14 to 22-plus inches along with winds gusting over 30 mph are forecast for the blizzard region. Travel will become very difficult or impossible.

Twin Cities area

Wet snow should reach the Twin Cities area by late evening.

A winter storm warning for heavy snow and sleet will go into effect for the northern and central metro counties from 9 p.m. Friday evening until noon on Sunday.

Two to 3 inches of snow and sleet are likely to fall Friday night although some of it will melt in the high temperatures.

More snow and sleet will fall on Saturday. The precipitation might become mixed with or change to rain temporarily Saturday afternoon.

Snow will continue Saturday night and then wind down toward midday on Sunday.

Forecast snowfall amounts are a low-confidence forecast due to the shifting forecast models as well the expected mixed precipitation types. At this point before the storm arrives, I would predict around 4 to 6 inches in the southern suburbs and increasing to around a foot in northern suburbs. The central urban core from Minneapolis to St. Paul might get about 6 to 10 inches all told. Add in some melting and settling, and actual accumulations on the ground should be less.

In other words, stay abreast of forecast updates.

Placid next week

No storms are expected next week until possibly on Sunday.

Likewise, no big temperature swings should come our way during what will be the first week of December.

Happy snow removal.