Another cold one; cold start to the week, then temps rebound on Thursday

Storm track stays south this coming week

The official Sunday morning low temperature was one degree below zero at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. A thin blanket of clouds kept the temp from dipping lower. Lakeville, in Dakota County of the southeast metro, dipped to 11 degrees below zero.

Much of northern Minnesota saw lows in the teens and 20s below zero Sunday morning. Bigfork, in north-central Minnesota, reported -31 at 7 a.m.! That was the air temperature, not the wind chill temperature. Northwestern and north-central Minnesota will have the coldest wind chill temps Sunday afternoon.

Temperature trends

It’s cold today, but winds will be light much of the day in the Twin Cities metro area and much of southeastern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin.

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Sunday afternoon highs will reach the teens in parts of far southern Minnesota. Highs in the single digits above zero will be common across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A few spots in the Twin Cities metro area are expected to creep into double-digit highs at some point Sunday afternoon. In case you’re wondering, our average Twin Cities high temperature is 27 degrees this time of year.

Monday highs reach the teens south and the single digits in the north:

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Monday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the upper teens Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by upper 20s Thursday and around 30 on Friday.

Let’s take a closer look at the Thursday highs:

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Thursday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Highs in the 20s will be shared by much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Thursday, with some spots in the far southeast reaching the lower 30s. That’ll be a nice rebound from our current cold stretch.

Snow chances

Northwestern Minnesota has the best chance of snow showers Sunday afternoon, with a stray flurry possible elsewhere. Some light snow showers are possible in far southern Minnesota late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.

Parts of northern Minnesota will have some periods of light snow overnight Sunday night into very early on Monday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Sunday evening through Monday morning:

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Simulated radar from Sunday evening through Monday morning
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

The storm track will stay well south of Minnesota this coming work week, so we aren’t expecting any big snowstorms. That’s welcome news for commuters, shoppers and those of us who want a break from the snow shoveling. Our official Twin Cities snow total is 20.6 inches so far this snow season. That’s 5 inches more snow than our our average Twin Cities snow total for this point in our snow season.

Ice safety

If you plan to venture out onto a lake this weekend, here’s a reminder about ice safety.

The ice thickness guidelines from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources indicate that at least 4 inches of clear new ice are needed to support a human:

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Ice safety guidelines
Minnesota Department of Natural Resources

Here are additional ice-thickness guidelines from the Minnesota DNR:

UNDER 4" - STAY OFF
4" - Ice fishing or other activities on foot
5" - 7" - Snowmobile or ATV
8" - 12" - Car or small pickup
12" - 15" - Medium truck

Many factors other than thickness can cause ice to be unsafe.
White ice or "snow ice" is only about half as strong as new clear ice. Double the above thickness guidelines when traveling on white ice.

The DNR does not measure ice thickness on Minnesota lakes. Your safety is your responsibility. Check ice thickness at least every 150 feet.

Temperature, snow cover, currents, springs and rough fish all affect the relative safety of ice. Ice is seldom the same thickness over a single body of water; it can be 2 feet thick in one place and 1 inch thick a few yards away. Check the ice at least every 150 feet.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.