A potent storm targets Minnesota with rain, snow and ice for the weekend

Friday will bring some welcome sunshine to Minnesota, but already by Saturday morning a messy mix of winter weather will be moving across the state.

Thursday night and Friday

A very minor disturbance could bring a few light snow showers and flurries across central Minnesota Thursday evening, but otherwise the weather remains fairly quiet through the overnight under mostly cloudy skies. The dense fog we’ve seen the past few days will not be a concern again.

By Friday, everything is cleared out and sunshine returns across the state. Temperatures dip slightly for Friday, but remain above average, with highs in the 20s and 30s.

By Friday evening clouds start moving back in ahead of the weekend’s winter storm.

Potent weekend storm

A strong winter storm will impact Minnesota through the weekend. Overnight Friday, snow will start to move across the state from south to north. Impacts will be felt statewide by Saturday morning, and it will not taper off until Monday. A winter storm watch has already been issued for much of the state for this weekend.

As the system moves in, enough mild air will accompany it to switch some of the precipitation over to a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain and rain, in addition to the snow.

This system will have a lot of moisture, so in northern and western parts of Minnesota where it remains mostly snow, there could be reports of 6 inches-plus of snow Saturday through Sunday. Southern portions of the state will likely also see some snow accumulation, especially Monday, but there is a good chance the southeastern corner of the state including the Twin Cities will have more of the precipitation come as rain. Central portions of Minnesota are the most likely to get some freezing rain, and the combination of that ice and higher winds on Sunday could lead to slick roads and possibly an issue for tree branches.

The wind on Sunday could also cause blowing snow.

There is still some uncertainty with exactly where the rain/ice/snow lines will fall over the weekend, as even slight changes in the temperature will impact the weather. For example, on Sunday, the forecast temperatures across Minnesota range from the 20s in the northwest corner of the state to the 40s in the southeast corner; accounting for the different types of forecast precipitation.

Even slight changes in the temperatures forecast could change precipitation type, and the temperature models do indicate a wide range of possible temperatures. Using Sunday as an example again, this forecast temperature graph for the Twin Cities shows a potential high of 43, but the red shaded area indicates the possible range for the high could be anywhere from 33 to 48.

As the system gets closer and temperatures become more certain, we will have a better idea of the potential snow versus rain totals.

Be prepared for this storm to impact travel over the weekend.

Enough cold air moves in behind the system that it is likely all the precipitation switches to just snow by Sunday night. We will see some lingering light snow on Monday as the storm departs.

Behind the storm, temperatures will be lower Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the teens and 20s.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:48 a.m. Monday through Friday morning.