Frigid temperatures this weekend prompt cold weather advisories

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Forecast models are coming into better agreement about our weather this weekend.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern Friday evening through Sunday night:

Green indicates rain, while blue is snow and pink/purple a wintry mix in the loop.

The best chance of 6 inches or more of snow this weekend appears to be over western and northern Minnesota, and possibly parts of central Minnesota.  Some areas may also see some sleet and freezing rain at times. 

The GFS model indicates a wintry mix for the Twin Cities metro area early Saturday, which may transition to mostly rain in the metro area Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, then back to a mix or snow on Sunday.  

This is an evolving situation, and our precipitation types and amounts will vary with the track of the low-pressure system and the temperature profile. For instance, if surface temperatures are still below freezing in areas that see rain on Saturday, freezing rain/icing will be a problem.

Here’s a summary of forecast uncertainties from the National Weather Service:

Keep in mind that it can snow if the official temperature (measured five feet above the ground) is in the mid and upper 30s. That happens when there’s a shallow layer of warm air and plenty of cold air above that shallow warm layer. Some of the heaviest snows that I’ve seen have been with official temps in the upper 30s. 

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR 

, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News 

Weather forecasts for this weekend will be updated by the NWS office in the 

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 25 degrees this time of year.  We’ll top out in the 30s both days this weekend.

Saturday highs in the 30s cover most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin, with some 20s in northwestern Minnesota:

Sunday highs reach the 20s over most of western and northern Minnesota, with 30s in east-central and southeastern Minnesota:

Some spots in western Wisconsin will top 40 degrees Sunday afternoon.

Many areas will see strong winds Saturday afternoon into Sunday, so it’ll feel cooler than the forecast highs.

We have plenty of snow on the ground in most areas. Here’s the latest snow depth analysis from NOAA:

There are between 10 and 20 inches of snow on the ground across much of northeastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Most spots in northwestern Minnesota, plus central and Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, are in the 4-to-10-inch snow depth range. The Twin Cities snow depth sits at 6 inches right now.

Although most areas have ample snow for cross-country skiers, sledders and snowboarders, the weekend snowstorm will reduce visibilities and make travel difficult in some locations. Other spots will see rain temporarily degrade the quality of the snow for outdoor sports, but hopefully a changeover to snow as the storm departs will improve snow conditions in the areas that see rain. 

Stay tuned if you have outdoor plans this weekend.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Ron Trenda

Author

Our weekend weather looks very interesting. We have the latest forecast model update, with details on who has the best chance of seeing heavy snow.

Snow, rain and a wintry mix for Minn. this weekend, with heavy snow possible in some areas

Go Deeper.

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