Weekend storm to drop heavy snow, rain, freezing rain across Minnesota

Here’s the latest on our weekend winter storm.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Friday evening evening through Sunday afternoon:

Green indicates rain, while blue is snow and pink/purple is a wintry mix in the loop.

Heavy snow is most likely in western Minnesota and parts of northern Minnesota, and other areas will see a wintry mix of snow, light freezing rain or freezing drizzle, and rain.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for the weekend covering the areas where winter hazards are highest:

The winter storm watch begins at midnight Friday in southwestern Minnesota, at 6 a.m Saturday in northwestern Minnesota, and at 9 a.m. Saturday in northeastern Minnesota. The winter storm watch will end at 6 a.m. on Monday.

Winter storm details

Here’s an overview of the storm, from the NWS:

Potential weekend snow amounts look like this:

Our 2 to 3 inches in the Twin Cities metro area would be split between late Friday night into Saturday morning and late Sunday into early Monday.

Periods of freezing rain/freezing drizzle would cause ice accumulation:

It doesn’t take much ice on roadways to take away our ability to steer or stop a vehicle. The areas with highest ice accumulation could see some power lines and tree limbs fall down.

Freezing rain/drizzle occurs when temperatures aloft are warm enough for rain or drizzle to develop, while temperatures at or near the ground are cold enough for the rain or drizzle to freeze on contact:

Northeastern Minnesota will see a wintry mix, with some ice and several inches of snow this weekend:

Heavy snow amounts are likely across much of western Minnesota this weekend, with 6 inches likely in many areas and a shot at one foot of snow in some spots:

Updates on the winter storm will be posted by the NWS offices in the Twin Cities, Duluth and Grand Forks.

Southeastern Minnesota could see a wintry mix Saturday morning, then mainly rain Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Some localized flooding will be possible in areas that see the most rain.

Twin Cities metro area

My current thinking for the Twin Cities metro area looks like this:

• Snow moves into the metro area sometime after midnight Friday night and periods of snow continue into Saturday morning. The snow may be mixed with sleet, light rain or light freezing rain Saturday morning.

• The wintry mix changes to rain Saturday afternoon, with periods of rain through Saturday night.

• The metro area will probably see some periods of rain or drizzle on Sunday, then a wintry mix Sunday night and periods of light snow Monday. Freezing drizzle is also possible on Monday.

• We aren’t expecting much snow in the metro area, with only 2-3 inches split between late Friday night/Saturday morning and Sunday night/Monday morning. Snow combined with possible freezing rain/freezing drizzle at times will make some roads slick.

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Weekend temps

Saturday highs will range from the 20s in northwestern Minnesota to 40s in the far southeast:

We’ll probably reach the upper 30s in the metro area.

Sunday highs will be in the 30s across much of Minnesota, with some 20s in the northwest. We’ll see 40s from the Twin Cities into southeastern Minnesota and much of western Wisconsin:

Snow depths

We looked at a regional map of snow cover in Thursday’s Updraft post. Now, we have a detailed Minnesota snow depth map, courtesy of the Minnesota State Climatology Office and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources:

Note the large area in northeastern Minnesota with 18 to 24 inches of snow on the ground, with a pocket of 24 to 30 inches of snow cover.

Elsewhere in northern Minnesota snow depths are generally in the 8- to 18-inch range, with central Minnesota and parts of the Twin Cities metro area in the 4- to 8-inch range. The official Twin Cities snow depth was 4 inches this morning.

Although most areas have ample snow for cross-country skiers, sledders and snowboarders, the weekend snowstorm will reduce visibilities and make travel very difficult in many locations.

Other spots will see freezing rain and rain degrade the quality of the snow for outdoor sports, but hopefully a changeover back to snow as the storm departs on Monday will improve snow conditions in the areas that see rain.

Stay tuned.