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Snow moves in this afternoon and lingers into evening; mild start to the week, then arctic chill

Lake-effect snow along the North Shore

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We didn’t see any measurable snow at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport during the first 11 days of January 2020. We’ll see several batches of snow over the next few days,

Let’s start with the snow up north. Lake-effect snow totals of 5 to 7 inches were reported near Superior, Wisconsin, from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Some 2 to 4 inch totals were reported along the North Shore of Lake Superior late Saturday into early Sunday. Additional snow is expected today:

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Sunday snow
National Weather Service

A winter storm warning continues until 4 p.m. this Sunday along portions of the North Shore of Lake Superior:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 602 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 ...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AFFECTING THE NORTH SHORE TODAY... .The heavy lake effect snow continues along the North Shore this morning, and will continue to gradually lift northward today as winds turn more east to southeasterly, impacting the North Shore as far north as Lutsen and Tofte this afternoon. Current radar imagery shows a fairly intense band of lake effect snow forming over Two Harbors this morning. Due to the possibility of locally heavier snowfall amounts, decided to extend the Winter Storm Warning for southern Lake county into the afternoon hours today. Additional snowfall accumulations of between 2 to 5 inches are expected, with some locally higher amounts possible if a more intense band of lake effect snow develops. MNZ020-122200- /O.EXT.KDLH.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200112T2200Z/ Southern Lake- Including the cities of Two Harbors and Silver Bay 602 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of between 2 to 5 inches will be possible for areas of southern Lake county, with some locally heavier amounts possible. * WHERE...In Wisconsin, Douglas County. In Minnesota, Southern Lake and Carlton and South St. Louis Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Fond du Lac Band. * WHEN...Until 4 PM CST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions, and reduced visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

Northeastern Minnesota snow reports will be posted here.

Snow will move into southern Minnesota Sunday afternoon and spread northeastward through the late afternoon and evening hours. It looks like the snow will arrive in the Twin Cities metro area in the mid-to-late afternoon hours and continue Sunday evening, with an inch or two of accumulation possible. Some spots in south-central and southeastern Minnesota could see around three inches of snow.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Sunday afternoon through Sunday night:

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Simulated radar Sunday afternoon through Sunday night
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

Here are possible snow totals Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, via the Twin Cities NWS office:

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Sunday afternoon/evening snow
National Weather Service

The winter weather advisory starts at 2 p.m. Sunday afternoon and continues until midnight across portions of southern Minnesota.

Details of the winter weather advisory:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 950 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 ....WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT... .Moderate snow will develop across much of south central Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Accumulations from 3 to 4 inches are likely across this region, from St James, Mankato, Waseca and Faribault. The higher snowfall rates will likely occur between 3 PM and 9 PM across the area. The snow should exit the eastern Minnesota through about midnight. MNZ074>078-082>085-091-092-130000- /O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0003.200112T2000Z-200113T0600Z/ Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca- Steele-Martin-Faribault- Including the cities of New Ulm, St Peter, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, St James, Mankato, Waseca, Owatonna, Fairmont, and Blue Earth 950 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Highest snowfall rates developing from 4 to 8 PM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Updates on the snow can be found on the Twin Cities NWS site. Snow reports will be posted here.

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Monday evening snow

Another batch of snow moves through much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Monday evening into early Tuesday. NOAA’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Monday evening through Tuesday morning:

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Simulated radar Monday evening through Tuesday morning
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

We’ll also have a chance of snow on Wednesday and there’s the possibility of a plowable snow on Friday. Stay tuned.

Temperature trends

Sunday highs will be mainly in the teens over northern and central Minnesota, with some lower 20s in the Twin Cities metro area, parts of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Monday highs will be mainly in the 20s, with some lower 30s in the Twin Cities metro area and points to the southeast and east:

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Monday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Our Twin Cities high on Tuesday is projected to be around 30 degrees early in the day, with temps falling through the 20s the rest of the day. We top out in the upper teens on Wednesday and around 10 degrees on Thursday, followed by a high in the mid 20s Friday. Our coldest morning in the Twin Cities is expected to be Thursday morning, with a low around -6. Lows in the teens below zero and 20s below zero are possible in northern Minnesota and parts of central Minnesota early Thursday morning.

Snow tales

Though Saturday, our 2019-2020 snow-season total stood at 25.6 inches at MSP airport. At this point in our snow season last year, MSP airport had tallied only 11 inches of snow, but the Twin Cities still ended up with 77.1 inches of snow for the 2018-2019 snow season…39 inches of that total was recorded in February.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.