Our mild stretch will last several days; spring flood outlooks released
This feels like late November or late February, not late January
Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 24 degrees this time of year, but the Twin Cities metro area will see highs in the 30s this Saturday and around 30 on Sunday.
Saturday highs reach the 30s over most of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, with 20s in western Minnesota.
Sunday highs hit the upper 20s in most of northern and central Minnesota, with some lower 30s in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:
Winds will be fairly light on Sunday, so afternoon wind chills will be mainly in the 20s:
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Twin Cities metro area high temps are projected to reach the lower 30s Monday through Friday.
The Jan. 30 through Feb. 3 temperature outlook from the NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a tendency toward warmer than normal temperatures:
Snow chances
Southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have some periods of light snow Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon, with a few passing flurries possible elsewhere in eastern Minnesota. Far western Minnesota has a chance of snow showers and patchy freezing drizzle Saturday night. There’ll be a chance of light snow in west-central and southwestern Minnesota late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening:
You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.
Spring flood outlook
The National Weather Service has released an early version of their spring flood outlook:
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 110 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2020 ...EARLY SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SPRING 2020 FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI, MINNESOTA, AND CHIPPEWA (WI) RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES... DUE TO VERY HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, COUPLED WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL STREAMFLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE INITIAL SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS HIGH FOR 2020. MUCH WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS IN FEBRUARY, MARCH, AND APRIL.
The flood outlook link will take you to forecast probabilities for minor, moderate and major flooding at various locations along our rivers. The NWS chart shows the following chances for major flooding along our rivers this spring: 67% at Hastings, 61% at St. Paul, 60% at Red Wing and 55% at Stillwater. The river level forecasts will be updated in the coming weeks and months.
The NWS also indicates that some areas along the Red River in northwestern Minnesota could see a top-five flood this spring.
Snow depths
If you have outdoor plans this weekend, you’ll be happy to know that there’s plenty of snow on the ground across most of Minnesota. Here’s the latest snow depth map, courtesy of the Minnesota State Climatology Office and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources:
You can see that snow cover ranges from four to eight inches in parts of the far south to over 36 inches in much of northeastern Minnesota. The official Twin Cities snow depth was eight inches this Friday morning.
Mild weekend temperatures might shrink our snow cover a bit, but most of Minnesota has plenty of snow on the ground for cross-country skiers, sledders, snowboarders and snowmobilers.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.