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Ahead of Sunday’s 92nd Academy Awards, Associated Press film writer Jake Coyle shares his predictions for a ceremony with a lot of locks but the potential for a few surprises.

The last-arriving contender, Sam Mendes' World War I film “1917,” has seemingly, fittingly run away with it. The top-prize winner of the 

 “1917” is the clear favorite. But I think Bong Joon Ho's universally beloved “Parasite" could pull off an upset that would rank alongside the underdog win of “Moonlight” three years ago. Taking 

best ensemble from the Screen Actors Guild

 showed that “Parasite” has perhaps the most important vote in the actors (they make up the largest percentage of the film academy), and academy membership has also grown more international in recent years. The time may be right for the first foreign-language film to win best picture, and “Parasite” deserves it.

Zellweger is already a winner for “Cold Mountain" in 2004. But her fragile yet powerhouse performance as Judy Garland in “Judy” is that irresistible thing: a comeback story. The part 

reverberates with Zellweger's own history

; she and Garland are both former American sweethearts. She's a fine choice, but the verve and velocity of Ronan's great performance in “Little Women” shouldn't be overlooked. Formidable as this category is, it would have been better with Woodard's fully inhabited, devastatingly still performance as a prison warden in the spare “Clemency" — not to mention Lupita Nyong'o's ferocious double act in “Us.”

After several years of lethargy, best actor is the year's most competitive category. The next five options — including Adam Sandler ("Uncut Gems") and Eddie Murphy ("Dolemite Is My Name") — are equally good. Phoenix, like all of this year's acting favorites, has been the clear front-runner for some time, for his morose yet limber Joker. But Driver's performance in “Marriage Story” is the real show-stopper here; a more nuanced and rewarding performance that culminates beautifully in song and tears. A shout-out also to the exceptional Holland, whose guileful, fast-talking NBA agent in “High Flying Bird” felt like a thrilling fast break.

Dern has won every precursor award ahead of the Oscars, and is poised to win her first Academy Award. That's cause for celebration. Dern has been one of the finest actresses in Hollywood for decades, and her fearsome divorce attorney in “Marriage Story” is indelible, particularly her fabulous monologue on the double-standards of modern marriage. But this category is also missing some worthy actresses, including Jennifer Lopez ("Hustlers") and Shuzhen, who played the grandmother unaware of her own cancer diagnosis in Lulu Wang's tender family drama “The Farewell.”

Nothing is more certain this year than Pitt's win for “Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood,” a movie that perfectly showcases Pitt's sly charisma. His march toward his first acting Oscar has been fun, too, in a string of acceptance speeches (thanks to an apparent joke writer helping him out) 

The talent in this category is extraordinary — Pesci or Hanks would win most years — but it's still a shame there wasn't room for Snipes' irresistible prima donna actor-turned-director in “Dolemite Is My Name” or Rob Morgan's powerful death row inmate in “Just Mercy.”

Mendes appears the favorite here for the technical acumen of his seemingly-one-take “1917.” The pristine command of Bong would be a better choice but so would the colossal achievement of Scorsese in “The Irishman.” He has won best director only once before. And in 2019, Scorsese not only produced a career-crowning masterwork but mounted 

. Greta Gerwig deserved to be among the nominees here for her thrillingly vibrant “Little Women,” but so did Marielle Heller ("A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood"), whose talent with texture, performance and authenticity doesn't announce itself, and can go underappreciated.

A screenplay win for “Parasite” would signal a real chance for a best-picture victory. But also worthy here are two deeply personal scripts: Baumbach's stirring portrait of divorce “Marriage Story” and Almodovar's unfortunately overlooked “Pain and Glory,” a sublime, autobiographical work.

Waititi's clever, poignant script for the Nazi Germany coming-of-age romp “Jojo Rabbit” appears to have the edge here. There is understandably wide respect for Waititi's idiosyncratic and daring sensibility. Yet, Gerwig's script inventively pulled apart Louisa May Alcott's much-adapted novel —only to put it back together again.

The sheer number of great documentaries being made today can hardly be accommodated by one category. Just for starters the snubs here include the uplifting “Maiden," about an all-female crew in a worldwide 1989 yachting race; Scorsese's fiery Dylan documentary “Rolling Thunder Revue” and the enthralling archival project “Apollo 11.” “American Factory,” the first film released by Barack and Michelle Obama's Higher Ground Productions, is the most likely winner. But 

“Honeyland," about a singular Macedonia beekeeper,

 is exquisitely intimate and yet resonates with global environmental allegory.

This will be an easy win for “Parasite,” with potentially bigger awards to come. But little in this awards season was more disappointing than the lack of attention for Celine Sciamma's “Portrait of a Lady on Fire.” The period French romance, 

, narrowly missed out on being France's submission. (France instead chose the muscular police procedural “Les Miserables.”) Audiences will at least have a chance to catch up to Sciamma's sensational film when it properly opens in theaters next week.

Arts and Culture

The Associated Press

Author

In his predictions for Sunday, AP film writer Jake Coyle says Bong Joon Ho's class satire “Parasite” will pull off the upset. It would be the first foreign language film to ever win best picture.

Oscar predictions: Can 'Parasite' upset '1917'?

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