Heavy snow late tonight and Sunday AM in southern Minn.; metro snow amounts highest to the south

New computer model info shows that the Saturday night/Sunday snowstorm will dump heavy snow in southern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin. The new info also shows that the southern part of the Twin Cities metro area could see some heavy snow totals.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential snow pattern Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon:

The heaviest snow amounts overnight and Sunday could be in the 6 to 9 inch range in southern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin. Twin Cities snow amounts by noon Sunday could range from around 3 inches in the far north metro to around 6 or 7 inches in the far south metro.

Here’s the weekend snow-total forecast issued early Saturday by the National Weather Service:

As mentioned, the heavier snow band may expand northward.

Winter storm warnings start at 9 p.m. in the Marshall area, and at 11 p.m. in the Mankato and Albert Lea areas, then begin at midnight in Rochester and at 3 a.m. Sunday in Eau Claire:

A winter storm watch begins at 1 a.m. Sunday in the Twin Cities metro area, and it’s due to the potential of heavier snow if the storm track shifts slightly northward. That winter storm watch extends into St. Croix and Pierce counties of west-central Wisconsin and also into parts of west central Minnesota.

More on watch vs. warning:

Details on the storm:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 430 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 ...SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN... .A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for a couple rows of counties along and north of a line from Canby to Belle Plaine Minnesota through Menomonie to Chippewa Falls Wisconsin from late Saturday night into Sunday. There has been a northern shift in the snow band recently. If this continues, snowfall amounts of 6 inches or greater would be possible in the Watch area. The heaviest snow will be Sunday morning. Meanwhile farther to the south a Winter Storm Warning has been issued. Here confidence is higher in a band of 5 to 8 inches of snow developing later tonight and lasting into Sunday. The heaviest snow will be Sunday morning, with snowfall rates of an inch per hour likely Sunday morning. In addition, northerly wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph will develop Sunday afternoon as the snow tapers off, and this could lead to drifting snow and reduced visibility. There is a winter weather advisory for Martin and Watonwan counties where less snow is expected. The winter storm watch means be prepared, hazardous winter weather is possible. The winter storm warning means please take action such as adjusting travel plans, or allowing extra time for travel. Expect roads to become snow covered and slippery. MNZ059>063-068>070-081830- /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0003.200209T0700Z-200210T0000Z/ Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota- Including the cities of Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chaska, Shakopee, and Hastings 430 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central and east central Minnesota. * WHEN...From late tonight through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Here are projected start times for the snow in the counties for which the Twin Cities NWS office issues forecasts:

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Our average high temp is 27 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities. We’ll top out in the upper teens to around 20 in most of the metro area Saturday afternoon. Highs in the teens will be common across much of northern and central Minnesota, with some 20s in far southern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin.

Sunday highs reach the teens to the northwest, with 20s to the southeast:

Winds pick up Sunday afternoon, giving us wind chill temps in the single digits and teens:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the upper 20s Monday and Tuesday, followed by lower 30s Wednesday then upper teens Thursday and Friday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.