Periods of snow or a wintry mix on Monday; much colder Tuesday and Wednesday

This is the tale of two weather systems.

The first weather system will bring bring snow to northwestern Minnesota Sunday evening, then the snow expands in coverage overnight Sunday night to cover most of northern Minnesota. Periods of snow continue in northern Minnesota Monday morning, and the snow could linger into Monday afternoon in parts of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.

The second weather system moves in during the morning hours of Monday, bringing snow or a wintry mix of snow/light freezing rain/freezing drizzle to much of southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area plus western Wisconsin. Periods of snow or a wintry mix will linger into Monday afternoon in those same areas.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Sunday evening through Monday evening:

New info shows less than one inch of snow on Monday for the Twin Cities metro area, but we would see a few slick spots in areas that also see some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Higher snow amounts are expected Monday to the south and southeast.

Here are forecast snow amounts from the National Weather Service:

The northern Minnesota snow amounts are for Sunday night through Monday, the southern Minnesota snow amounts are for Monday.

A winter weather advisory runs from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. Monday in southeastern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin:

Here are details of the winter weather advisory:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service La Crosse WI 305 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2020 ...Accumulating Snow, Slippery Travel Expected Monday... .A fast moving storm will bring accumulating snow to much of the area Monday into Monday evening, with that snow mixing with sleet, freezing rain, or even just rain at times, especially for areas south of Interstate 90. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 5 inches is expected for much of the area, highest across northeast Iowa into western and central Wisconsin. Roads will become snow- covered, with hazardous travel developing in many areas, including during the afternoon commute. IAZ008>011-018-019-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-170600- /O.NEW.KARX.WW.Y.0011.200217T1200Z-200218T0000Z/ Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Wabasha- Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston- Including the cities of Osage, Cresco, Decorah, Waukon, Charles City, New Hampton, Wabasha, Dodge Center, Rochester, Winona, Austin, Preston, and Caledonia 305 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour are possible across northeast Iowa Monday afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

The NWS offices in the Twin Cities and La Crosse will have updates on the advisory.

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Monday highs will probably reach the 30s in about the southeastern half of Minnesota plus most of western Wisconsin:

Highs will be mainly in the 20s in the northwestern half of Minnesota, but far northwestern Minnesota may only reach the teens.

Many areas will have Tuesday highs in the teens, with single-digits to the northwest:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the upper teens on Tuesday and in the lower teens on Wednesday. Metro area highs rebound to the lower 20s on Thursday, followed by upper 30s on Friday.

How many February days with enough snow to shovel?

On average, the Twin Cities will see one inch or more of snow on three days during the month of February. MSP airport recorded nine days with an inch or more of snow last February, which was the snowiest February in Twin Cities weather records. 39 inches of snow were tallied last February at MSP airport.

I hope that you have a good week!