Wind and rain Saturday afternoon, changeover to snow in many areas Saturday night

Get ready for some soaking rains Saturday afternoon and early Saturday evening. We may even see some lightning and hear a rumble of thunder by late Saturday afternoon.

Rain will begin to mix with snow this evening from southwestern Minnesota through central Minnesota and on into northeastern Minnesota. The transition to a rain/snow mix might hold off until late evening in most of the Twin Cities metro area and west-central Wisconsin. The rain/snow mix changes to all snow in most areas overnight, then continues as snow or a mix early Sunday morning, followed by a transition back to rain showers.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon:

Precipitation totals (rain plus the water content of snow) will be over one inch in many areas this weekend:

The yellow-shaded area is over 1.5 inches.

Potential snowfall totals Saturday night into Sunday look like this:

Notice the stripe of 4+ inches from Wright county northeastward. I see the possibility of 2 to 3 inches in western Carver county and from northwestern Hennepin county into northern Anoka county by Sunday morning, but some of that snow will melt once the snow lets up. Lighter snow amounts of one inch or less are expected in the southeastern part of the metro area.

Snow totals of three to six inches are expected in parts of northeastern Minnesota:

Advisories

Here are details of the winter weather advisory that begins Saturday evening in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED National Weather Service Duluth MN 419 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 ...HEAVY WET SNOW EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... .A strong spring storm system will bring a rain and snow mix to the Northland for Saturday through Sunday. Rain will spread across the area late Saturday morning and through the afternoon. Rain is expected to change to snow Saturday night, and back to rain during the day on Sunday. The precipitation will be associated with strong northeast winds Saturday night with gusts to 35 mph. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible, along with some locally higher amounts along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Uncertainty in snowfall amounts remains based on how fast rain may change to snow, and the track of the storm. MNZ012-019>021-035>037-WIZ001-002-282115- /O.UPG.KDLH.WS.A.0003.200329T0000Z-200329T1800Z/ /O.COR.KDLH.WW.Y.0012.200329T0000Z-200329T1600Z/ Northern Cook and Lake-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake- Southern Cook-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin- Carlton and South St. Louis-Douglas-Bayfield- Including the cities of Isabella, Hibbing, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Hill City, Aitkin, Duluth, Superior, Washburn, and Bayfield 419 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Strong northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible along the shoreline of Lake Superior, and especially in the Twin Ports. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Wisconsin and east central and northeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to slippery, hazardous road conditions. The strong winds in the Twin Ports will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages could result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

There are lakeshore flood warnings that begin Saturday evening in parts of the northeast as well:

A winter weather advisory begins at 9 p.m. this Saturday and runs into early Sunday in parts of southwestern Minnesota through central and east-central Minnesota, including a portion of the Twin Cities metro area:

Details of the advisory:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 319 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 ...Rain Changing to Snow Tonight... .A strong storm system will move northeast through the region today through Sunday. Rain will overspread the area today, but temperatures will start to fall tonight as the storm system moves into northeast Iowa. The colder temperatures will help change rain to snow across portions of Minnesota, mainly near and west of I-35 during the evening hours. The changeover to snow will likely occur during heavier periods of precipitation, so snowfall rates will exceed a half inch per hour at times. Accumulations in the advisory area, which extends from near Redwood Falls and New Ulm northeast through Hutchinson, Princeton, and Mora, will range from 1 to locally 5 inches. At this time, it appears that the primary impacts will be primarily west and north of the Twin Cities metro area. In addition to the snowfall, northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts will become northwest by Sunday morning. MNZ043>045-049>053-057>061-065>068-073>075-281800- /O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0012.200329T0200Z-200329T1400Z/ Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti- Chisago-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Renville-McLeod- Sibley-Carver-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet- Including the cities of Little Falls, Princeton, Mora, St Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Willmar, Litchfield, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, Olivia, Hutchinson, Gaylord, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, and St Peter 319 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 5 inches locally. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and southwest Minnesota. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

The wind advisory in southwestern Minnesota runs from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible at times.

Southwestern Minnesota is also in a flood watch Saturday and Saturday night:

Flood Watch National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 331 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 MNZ071-072-080-097-098-SDZ056-062-067-282115- /O.CON.KFSD.FA.A.0001.200328T1200Z-200329T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Pipestone-Rock-Moody-Minnehaha- Including the cities of Tyler, Hendricks, Lake Benton, Ivanhoe, Marshall, Slayton, Fulda, Pipestone, Luverne, Flandreau, Sioux Falls, Canton, Lennox, Tea, and Harrisburg 331 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of southwest Minnesota and South Dakota, including the following areas, in southwest Minnesota, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Pipestone, and Rock. In South Dakota, Lincoln, Minnehaha, and Moody. * From 7 AM CDT this morning through Sunday morning * Moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will develop later Saturday morning and persist into Saturday night. Rainfall totals between 1 and 2 inches are possible. * This moderate rainfall on top of saturated ground, may lead to significant ponding of water. In addition, area streams and rivers may rise and reach or exceed flood levels. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center of the NWS shows a marginal risk of severe weather in far southeastern Minnesota Saturday afternoon and Saturday night:

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. There is a much greater risk of severe weather in eastern Iowa and in Illinois.

Temperature trends

Saturday highs will be in the 40s across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A few spots in far southeastern Minnesota may top 50.

Sunday highs will be mainly in the 40s, with a few spots touching 50:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 50s on Monday, followed by mid 50s Tuesday and lower 50s on Wednesday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.