Milder temps return this weekend; dry both days in most areas

I imagine that most people weren’t amused by the wintry weather yesterday. Our Saturday will feel more springy, at least by the afternoon/early evening hours.

Temperature trends

Saturday afternoon highs will be the 40s in most areas, with some 30s in northwestern Minnesota. We’re expected to top out in the upper 40s in the Twin Cities metro area. A few spots in southern Minnesota could touch 50 degrees. Winds will be light and most areas will have plenty of sunshine, which is nice.

Sunday highs are expected to be in the 50s across most of Minnesota plus western Wisconsin, with some 40s in northwestern Minnesota and up along the North Shore of Lake Superior:

Sunday afternoon wind gusts could reach 15 to 20 mph at times:

Plotted values are in knots. 12 knots is around 14 mph.

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 60s Monday, followed by lower 70s Tuesday, then upper 50s Wednesday and upper 40s Thursday and Friday.

Rain chances hold off

Saturday and the daylight hours of Sunday are expected to be dry. A few showers could develop over parts of northwestern Minnesota Sunday evening. Areas of rain showers or a rain/snow mix move across portions of northern Minnesota overnight Sunday night, and scattered rain showers are possible in Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Monday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Sunday evening through Monday afternoon:

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Ice out dates

The ice is out of many lakes in the Twin Cities metro area and it’s also out of many southern Minnesota lakes. Here’s the how the Minnesota DNR’s ice-out map looks right now:

You can click on your favorite lake at the DNR link for ice-out info, including the median date of ice- out.

Ice-out on White Bear Lake and Lake Minnetonka occurred on Thursday. According to the DNR and the Freshwater Society, the latest ice-out ever recorded on Lake Minnetonka was on May 5…that happened in 2018 and also in 1857.

The Freshwater site has details on how ice-out is determined:

Freshwater and the Hennepin County Sheriff’s Water Patrol declared ice-out on Lake Minnetonka this morning (April 2, 2020) at 9:48 a.m. This was 12 days earlier than the April 14 median date — when half the recorded ice-outs have occurred earlier and half later. In the last twenty years, 15 dates have been earlier than the median date and five have been on or later.

Ice-out records on Lake Minnetonka date back to 1855 and are a valuable if inexact method for revealing long-term trends. There is no one best way to determine ice-out on lakes; methods vary from lake to lake so consistency from year to year is what researchers and agencies such as the Department of Natural Resources prefer to see. Lake Minnetonka is declared ice-free when a boat can pass through channels and navigate all portions of the lake.

The ice-out call for 2020 was made after monitoring the ice from shore and communicating with nearby Freshwater board members and the Water Patrol. Once conditions allowed, the Water Patrol began boat trips accompanied -- at a safe distance -- by Freshwater board members to areas of the lake where significant ice remained. A special thanks to longtime board member and emeritus director Tom Skramstad, who has spearheaded Freshwater's connection with the lake's ice-out for many years. His institutional knowledge of our organization and love of Lake Minnetonka have been invaluable over the years.

Freshwater Board Member Wade Campbell and Hennepin County Water Patrol deputies were on the lake and noted there was some ice remaining but that all the lake's bays and channels were fully navigable. Lake Minnetonka is the metro area’s largest lake, just over 14,500 acres in size with 37 bays.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.