Mild temps to start the week; update on river flooding

Thunderstorm chance late Monday night into Tuesday

Our Sunday afternoon high temp was 56 degrees at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. That was 4 degrees warmer than our average April 5 high in the Twin Cities. Much of Minnesota reached the 50s Sunday afternoon, with 40s in portions of northeastern and northwestern Minnesota. Even milder highs are expected for many areas on Monday.

Temperature trends

Monday highs are expected to range from the 40s in parts of northern Minnesota to 60s in the far south:

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Monday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Parts in the Twin Cities metro area may top 60 degrees Monday afternoon. Twin Cities highs are projected to be around 70 degrees on Tuesday. Metro high temps retreat after that, with mid 50s Wednesday, followed by mid 40s Thursday and upper 40s on Friday.

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Precipitation chances

Northern Minnesota may see some areas of rain showers and snow showers overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Parts of central and southern Minnesota, plus west-central Wisconsin, may see a few scattered showers Monday morning.

After midnight Monday night, areas of showers with a few embedded t-storms are expected to move across Minnesota and western Wisconsin, with that activity lingering into Tuesday morning in some locations. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Monday evening through Tuesday morning:

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Simulated radar Monday evening through Tuesday morning
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Flooding along some rivers

Flood warnings have been issued along many rivers in Minnesota. The warnings are shaded green on the following two maps:

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Flood warnings along some rivers (shaded green)
National Weather Service
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Flood warnings along some rivers (shaded green)
National Weather Service

You can click on any green-shaded location at the Twin Cities NWS site or the Grand Forks NWS site to get flood warning details.

River level forecasts

River level forecasts are updated on a regular basis. You can click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) site to get recent and forecast river levels. Some locations list levels in feet above sea level, others list levels in feet above a local reference point.

Here’s the hydrograph for the Red River at East Grand Forks, Minnesota:

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Hydrograph for the Red River at East Grand Forks
NOAA/NWS/U.S. Geological Survey

It shows the Red River at East Grand Forks cresting on Monday, followed by a slight dip toward midweek and then another crest next weekend.

Hydographs for central/southern Minnesota and Twin Cities metro area rivers can be found here. Here’s the hydrograph for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:

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Hydrograph for the Mississippi River at St. Paul
NOAA/NWS/U.S. Geological Survey

The hydrograph shows the Mississippi River at St. Paul cresting late Tuesday, then slowly falling later in the week. According to the AHPS site, the current level slightly above 14 feet causes portions of the Lilydale park area to begin to experience flooding.

It’s always good to stay aware of river-level forecasts and warnings if you live in or near flood-prone areas.