Snow and strong winds Sunday and Sunday night

There’s a new robin’s nest sitting atop the elbow of my downspout and under the eave of my roof. I’ve watched as the the nest-building progressed over the past few days, and I’m glad that the nest will be sheltered from the strong north winds and wet snow Sunday and Sunday night.

As I update you on the Sunday/Sunday night snow, keep in mind that April snow typically melts within a few days.

The big picture

Several computer models show rain spreading across portions of southern Minnesota Saturday evening, then rain or a rain/snow mix in southern Minnesota, the Twin Cities metro area, and parts of western Wisconsin late Saturday night and early Sunday. The mix transitions to wet snow in most areas Sunday morning, and the snow continues Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Saturday evening through Sunday evening:

How much snow?

The heaviest snow will tend to be in southern Minnesota and portions of Wisconsin. Here’s the snow forecast from the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service:

Parts of Scott and Dakota counties and southern Washington County could tally over 6 inches of new snow. Generally 3 to 5 inch totals are possible in the remainder of the metro area, including Minneapolis and St. Paul. The sharp cut-off in snow amounts to the north could creep southward a bit…check forecast updates.

Here’s the snow forecast for northwestern Wisconsin and parts of northeastern Minnesota:

The start of the snow will be delayed in northeastern Minnesota and parts of northwestern Wisconsin:

Warnings and advisories

Winter storm warnings (pink) are in effect Sunday into early Monday for much of southern Minnesota plus south and east portions of the metro area and portions of western Wisconsin:

Metro area counties included in the winter storm warning Sunday and Sunday night are Scott, Dakota and Washington county. The remainder of the Twin Cities metro area is included in the winter weather advisory (blue) for lower snow amounts.

Here are details of the winter storm warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020 ...Heavy Snow Expected Sunday into Monday... .A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for areas along and south of a line from Saint James to Mankato to Cottage Grove in Minnesota, continuing to New Richmond and Rice Lake in Wisconsin. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for a small swath of counties just to the north of that line. Heavy snow is expected to fall across parts of the area Sunday into Monday. Snowfall rates of one inch per hour or higher appear possible Sunday afternoon and evening which will allow the snow to quickly accumulate. The chance for snowfall amounts of 6 inches or more appears highest from southern and east central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin. In addition, this will likely be a heavy, wet snow. Some tree damage and power outages could occur due to the combination of gusty winds and the heavy wet snow. MNZ063-069-070-076>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ023>026-120400- /O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0006.200412T1200Z-200413T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0004.200412T1200Z-200413T1200Z/ Washington-Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth- Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn- Pepin- Including the cities of Stillwater, Shakopee, Hastings, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, St James, Mankato, Waseca, Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, Albert Lea, Hudson, River Falls, Menomonie, and Durand 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of west central Wisconsin and east central, south central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Due to the heavy, wet nature of the snow, tree damage and power outages could occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Here are details of the winter weather advisory that includes Minneapolis and St. Paul plus the north metro:

Hennepin-Ramsey-Sibley-Carver-Brown-Nicollet- Including the cities of Minneapolis, St Paul, Gaylord, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, New Ulm, and St Peter 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central and south central Minnesota. * WHEN...From 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Due to the heavy, wet nature of the snow, tree damage and power outages could occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling.

A change in the track of this storm and the timing of the transition to all snow will affect snow totals. You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Highs during the daylight hours of Sunday will be in the 30s in many locations. There may be some lower 40s early Sunday in the metro area and points to the east and south, then slowly falling temps through much of the day.

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 30s Monday and around 40 on Tuesday, followed by lower 40s Wednesday, upper 40s Thursday and lower 50s on Friday.

Flooding along the Red River

Many locations along the Red River are at either moderate or major flood stage right now.

River level forecasts are updated on a regular basis. You can click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) site to get recent and forecast river levels. Some locations list levels in feet above sea level, others list levels in feet above a local reference point.

Here’s the hydrograph for the Red River at East Grand Forks, Minnesota:

The level of the Red River is expected to continue to slowly fall at the East Grand Forks location over the next week.

Here’s the hydrograph for the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota:

The forecast is for the river level at Fargo to fall over the next week.

Across the river from Fargo, some streets in Moorhead, Minnesota were still closed due to flooding on Saturday:

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.