Chilly start on Monday; rain holds off until Monday evening in the Twin Cities

Average temps feel pretty good this time of year. The Sunday high temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 67 degrees. That’s one click above our average May 3 high temp of 66 degrees in the Twin Cities. We shared sunny skies with most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Sunday.

Cooler temps are in the forecast this week.

Temperature trends

Low temperatures late Sunday night/early Monday morning will drop into the 20s in northeastern Minnesota:

There’ll be a lot of lows in the 30s across the remainder of northern Minnesota, plus central and southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

Twin Cities metro area lows are expected to be close to 40 degrees in the downtown areas of Minneapolis and St. Paul, but lows will probably dip into the 30s in many of the outer suburbs.

I should mention that on mornings when the winds become very light, the temperature at ground level can be a few degrees cooler than the official temperature that’s measured 5 feet above the ground.

A source of the average final dates of freezing temperatures around Minnesota can be found here. It’s probably good to look at the (30-year) average date of the final 36 degree reading to account for potential frost on mornings with light winds or no wind.

For MSP airport, the 30-year data shows a 50% chance of the temperature falling to 32 degrees F or colder after April 25, and a 50% chance of a 36 degree or colder temp after May 5:

Highs rebound nicely in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Monday:

Northern Minnesota will see a lot of highs in the 50s on Monday and temps will only reach the 40s in parts of the northeast.

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 60s Monday, followed by upper 50s Tuesday, lower 60s Wednesday and Thursday, then mid 50s on Friday. 

Rain spreads eastward Monday afternoon and evening

Rain showers are forecast to move into far western Minnesota by early Monday afternoon. The showers spread slowly eastward during the afternoon, arriving in the Twin Cities Monday evening. One forecast model shows the Twin Cities metro area staying dry until about sunset on Monday. Periods of rain are likely in Minnesota and western Wisconsin overnight Monday night, mixing with some snow showers in far northern Minnesota. Most areas will see some showers at times on Tuesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Monday afternoon though Tuesday afternoon:

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.