Southern Minnesota under a severe weather risk Tuesday

Above average temperatures continue

A front moving across the state means slightly cooler temperatures in northern Minnesota, but in southern Minnesota, it will provide the instability needed for severe weather.

Tuesday’s forecast

After widespread 90s Monday across much of western Minnesota, including up to the Canadian border, a cold front that has moved through most of Minnesota brings slightly cooler weather to part of the state Tuesday. 

weather graphic
Surface analysis from 4 a.m. Tuesday data
National Weather Service

The northern half of the state sees more 80s, which is still above average, while southern Minnesota will stay hot and in the 90s.

weather graphic
Tuesday high temperatures
National Weather Service

The southern part of the state also sees higher humidity, which will cause afternoon heat indices in southeastern Minnesota to approach 100 degrees.

weather graphic
Tuesday afternoon forecast heat index
National Weather Service

The heat and humidity Minnesota, along with the front stalling in southern Minnesota, will serve as a trigger for storms in southern half of the state Tuesday afternoon. Some of those storms are likely to be severe, putting much of southern Minnesota under a risk for severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening. 

weather graphic
Tuesday severe weather risk
National Weather Service

The primary risk is for wind and hail, although there could be isolated tornadoes, particularly in southeastern Minnesota, which is under an “enhanced” risk area.  In general, rain remains under a quarter-inch, but there will be localized higher amount under strong storms. 

weather graphic
Forecast total rainfall for Tuesday
Pivotal Weather

Wednesday brings much quieter weather, but the heat remains. That forecast will be updated around 9 a.m.

Programming note

 You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:48 a.m. Monday through Friday morning.

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