Weekend forecast: Best rain chances Saturday night and early Sunday
Sunday will be the warmest day in most areas
I’ll start by mentioning that scattered showers and thunderstorms may spread across southern Minnesota and parts of central Minnesota Thursday afternoon and evening. The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk of severe weather (shaded yellow) Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening/Thursday night across far southern Minnesota:
Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. The SPC severe weather outlook will be updated around mid-afternoon.
The Twin Cities metro area is in the SPC marginal risk category, which means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. The best chance of scattered thunderstorms in the metro area appears to be this evening and tonight, but we cannot rule out an isolated late-afternoon thunderstorm.
Weekend temps and dew points
Now let’s talk about the weekend.
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Our average Twin Cities high temperature for June 6 (Saturday) is 76 degrees. The Twin Cities metro area will see highs around 80 degrees this Saturday, with 70s across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin:
Highs in the 60s are expected near Lake Superior.
Saturday afternoon dew point temperatures will be in the comfortable 40s in most areas, with lower 50s in far southern Minnesota:
There’ll be a wide range of high temperatures on Sunday, from upper 80s in southwestern Minnesota to 60s and upper 50s in parts of the northeast:
The Twin Cities metro area may reach the lower 80s on Sunday.
Southerly breezes will bring us increasing dew points on Sunday, with 50s in many areas and sticky 60s to the southwest:
Weekend rain chances
At this point it looks like northern Minnesota will see the most showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon:
The main batch of showers and thunderstorms in northern Minnesota is Saturday evening into early Sunday morning, but that may change in future runs of the forecast models.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop elsewhere in Minnesota plus western Wisconsin as we go through Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening/Saturday night.
Keep in mind that all areas will have many dry hours this weekend too.