Blizzard warnings in Northwest Minnesota, winter weather advisories across the state

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Areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over Minnesota and western Wisconsin Saturday evening and overnight Saturday night. 

By sunrise on Sunday, there may be some lingering showers and thunderstorms in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday morning through Sunday night:

Notice the batch of thunderstorms that moves into west-central and northwestern Minnesota late Sunday and spreads northeastward Sunday night.

Some of those thunderstorms may be severe. The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows an enhanced risk of severe weather in northwestern Minnesota and part of west-central Minnesota Sunday and Sunday night:

Enhanced risk means that numerous severe storms are possible:

The best chance of severe weather in northwestern Minnesota from that late Sunday wave of storms appears to be Sunday evening, but severe weather could arrive a bit sooner than that.

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR 

, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News 

Meteorological summer began June 1 and astronomical summer begins on June 20. Our weather will definitely have a summery vibe on Sunday.

Sunday highs reach the 90s in southwestern and west-central Minnesota, with a lot of 80s elsewhere:

Highs in the upper 80s are expected in the Twin Cities metro area Sunday afternoon. North-central Minnesota will see some 70s, with 60s in much of northeastern Minnesota.

Southern and central Minnesota will have dew points in the sticky 60s Sunday afternoon:

Wind gusts of 22 to 32 mph are possible in Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin Sunday afternoon:

Plotted values are in knots, with 22 knots equal to 25 mph.

Monday highs will reach the 90s across much of central and southern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 90s on Monday, followed by around 80 Tuesday, mid 70s Wednesday, and lower 70s Thursday and Friday.

Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to spin in the Gulf of Mexico, moving slowly toward the Louisiana coast.  According to NOAA’s 

, Cristobal had max sustained winds of 50 mph Saturday afternoon, and was moving northward at 12 mph. Here’s the cone of uncertainty for Cristobal’s track over the next few days:

Tropical storm warnings and storm surge warnings have been issued for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Here’s the latest warning map from the 

This was the Saturday afternoon Tropical Storm Cristobal advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 ...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 90.2W ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 90.2 West. Cristobal is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move northward over the central Gulf of Mexico today and tonight, and will be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Sunday. Cristobal's center is then forecast to move inland across Louisiana late Sunday through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast until landfall occurs on the northern Gulf coast. Weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday and Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at 

 STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Tampa Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning late tonight or Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the eastern and central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 12 inches. Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening across west central Florida, and early Sunday morning along the north central and northeast Gulf coast. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

The National Hurricane Center issues updates every few hours.

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Ron Trenda

Author

The chance of rain and thunder lingers through Saturday night in parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. We have details on who has the best chance of a  shower or thunderstorm on Sunday, as our heat and humidity ramp up. 

Thunderstorm chance lingers into early Sunday, then much warmer

Go Deeper.

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