Wintry mix spreads across Minnesota

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A change in our weather forecast since I looked at the situation Monday morning is that the cold front approaching from the west has slowed its pace a bit. The impact will be that Tuesday will be muggy again and somewhat warmer than was called for in earlier forecasts. 

The flash flood watch that had been posted for southeastern Minnesota has been expanded farther to the west.

Dew points will climb into the muggy range by midday Tuesday across eastern and southern Minnesota. Look for afternoon high temperatures in the cool mid 60 to low 70s in the northwest but warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s in the southeast. 

The Twin Cities should warm to around 84 with muggy afternoon conditions.

Thanks to those Cristobal remnants, large areas of rain and thunderstorms should reach southern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon and then angle a bit eastward into Wisconsin. Heavy rain is likely but forecast models differ a bit as to the most likely locations.

The Twin Cities should expect showers and thunderstorms beginning Tuesday afternoon and continuing Tuesday night.

Flash flood watches have been posted from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for south central, southeastern and much of east central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, as well as western Wisconsin.

Although the flash flood watch area has been expanded westward to include more areas where water might accumulate, especially on paved urban areas, heavy rains are most likely from southeastern Minnesota to west central and then parts of northwestern Wisconsin. 

Here is the big picture of rainfall expectations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Weather Prediction Center. Rainfalls of 2 to 4 inches, shown in dark green, are likely. Some localized spots might see in excess of 4 inches.

Closer to home, the National Weather Service has tried to flesh out a little more detail of the heavy rains likely from Albert Lea and Rochester in Minnesota northeast into Wisconsin toward Rice Lake and Ashland.

The updated convective outlook calls for just a marginal risk (the lowest of five categories of risk) of severe weather late on Tuesday across portions of southern Minnesota and southwest to west-central Wisconsin.

Then look for non-severe weather for the remainder of the week. In fact, Wednesday will feel like autumn with much cooler temperatures. 

Highs will be in the 60s for most of the state. Some southern sections might touch the low 70s while parts of northeastern Minnesota around the Boundary Waters will see just upper 50s with rain showers. Gusty northwest winds will make it feel even cooler.

The latter part of the week looks quite pleasant other than the usual chance of a few stray harmless showers.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Bill Endersen

Author

Tuesday will be warm and muggy across eastern and southern Minnesota. Heavy rain from the south is likely to reach southeastern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon and spread northeast across western Wisconsin. Wednesday will be much cooler, with wind and scattered showers.

Forecast heavy rainfall through 7:00 a.m. Thursday

Twin Cities National Weather Service

Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning

National Weather Service

Forecast 48-hour rainfall through 7:00 a.m. Thursday

NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Updated severe weather outlook through Tuesday night

Heavy rain possible southeast; much cooler and windy Wednesday

Go Deeper.

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