80s return; a strong or severe thunderstorm is possible this afternoon and evening

An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible this Sunday morning, but the main weather events will be later this afternoon and this evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in southern Minnesota and parts of central Minnesota this afternoon, then spread eastward.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening:

Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk of severe weather in southern Minnesota and the southwestern part of the Twin Cities metro area Sunday and Sunday night, meaning that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. Here’s the Twin Cities NWS depiction of the risk area:

The dark-green shaded area which includes the remainder of the Twin Cities metro has a marginal risk of severe weather, meaning that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

In the Twin Cities metro area our severe weather risk will tend to be highest late this afternoon and this evening, but isolated severe weather is possible a bit earlier.

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Summery

It’ll feel summery today.

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 81 degrees on June 21. Many spots in the Twin Cities metro area will reach the mid 80s this Sunday afternoon. Much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have Sunday highs in the 80s, with some 70s in far northern Minnesota:

Sunday afternoon dew points will be in the 50s north with some lower 60s in the south:

This Updraft blog will be updated by 10 am with updated info on today’s weather and a look at the week ahead.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.