Breezy and warmer Monday; thunderstorms return Monday evening

We had great weather on Sunday. Our high temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 85 degrees, which is one degree warmer than our average July 12 high. Much of Minnesota enjoyed reasonable temps and comfortable dew points, along with plenty of sunshine.

Monday highs will reach the upper 80s in the Twin Cities metro area and much of southern Minnesota, with some mid 80s elsewhere:

Many spots in northeastern Minnesota will have highs in the upper 70s.

Dew points will creep upward Monday afternoon, reaching the mid to upper 60s by late afternoon in western and southern Minnesota:

Winds will pick up Monday afternoon, gusting over 20 mph in parts of eastern Minnesota and over 25 mph in portions of western Minnesota:

Plotted winds are in knots, with 18 knots equal to around 21 mph. Much higher wind gusts can be expected near any t-storms that develop.

Thunderstorms spread eastward Monday evening and Monday night

Scattered thunderstorms are possible in northwestern Minnesota Monday afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to spread across most of northern and central  Minnesota Monday evening. Thunderstorm coverage expands overnight Monday night, eventually covering most of Minnesota plus western Wisconsin. Periods of thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon:

Rain totals from Monday evening through Tuesday could exceed two inches in portions of the Twin Cities metro area, southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Severe weather outlook

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk of severe weather Monday and Monday night across much of Minnesota:

Keep in mind that Monday night covers the overnight hours and ends at 7 a.m. Tuesday in the SPC outlook. Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

The chance of severe weather begins in parts of northwestern Minnesota Monday afternoon, but the severe weather risk is mainly Monday evening and overnight Monday night in most of Minnesota. Much of the Twin Cities metro area may see thunderstorm activity hold off until after sunset on Monday. Check for updates.

Here’s the Twin Cities NWS discussion of the severe weather outlook:

The rest of the week

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the mid 70s on Tuesday, followed by lower 80s Wednesday, mid 80s Thursday and upper 80s on Friday. Wednesday looks dry, but the metro area could see scattered showers and thunderstorms late Thursday and also on Friday.

Tornado caused Saturday damage near North Mankato

This just in:

We should have more details on Monday.

I hope that you have a good week!