Warm Monday with storms increasing toward evening; much cooler Tuesday
Warm July temperatures and climbing dew points are on the menu for Monday. Most locations will see high temperatures in the 80s. Cooler 70s should be the case in the northwest corner and close to Lake Superior.
The Twin Cities should get to about 88 degrees on a day when the average high is 84. Clouds will increase as will the southeast wind and dew point.
Unsettled weather brings thunderstorms
The first thunderstorms will break out across northwestern Minnesota Monday afternoon in response to a cold front and gradually expand across northern and into central sections as the afternoon progresses. The Twin Cities area just might see thunderstorms by late afternoon or early evening.
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Then the weather becomes a bit more complicated for Monday evening through the night. Thunderstorms will develop southeastward along the advancing cold front during that time period. At the same time, more storms will blow up in response to a midlevel disturbance from the southwest. The net result will be clusters of thunderstorms crossing Minnesota into Wisconsin from Monday evening through the overnight and into Tuesday.
Severe weather is possible
This weather pattern will have both the ample forcing and significant instability necessary to produce severe weather.
The updated convective outlook continues to include most of Minnesota in the slight risk category where scattered severe storms are possible. Southeastern and northeastern portions of the state as well as much of western Wisconsin are in a marginal risk where isolated severe storms are possible.
Flash flooding possible
While rain would be welcome in many areas, trains of storms might cause localized flash flooding.
Cooler behind the front
Tuesday will bring a much cooler day on the backside of that cold front. The Twin Cities will struggle to try to reach the low 70s.
Rain and thunderstorms will linger, mainly in southeastern Minnesota and across Wisconsin.
The slight risk of severe weather will have shifted southeast to southeastern Minnesota, southwestern Wisconsin and much of Iowa.
Look forward to midweek
Wednesday and Thursday look delightful with low mugginess and just the most isolated showers possible.
Hot, muggy and unsettled late in the week
Heat and humidity will return on Friday and hang around into the weekend.
An unsettled weather pattern could lead to more showers and thunderstorms during Friday through Sunday.