Severe weather chances rise through Friday
Parts of the state can expect heavier rain along with the storms
A changing weather pattern is keeping in warmer and humid air plus increasing the chance for storms as we head toward the weekend.
Wednesday’s forecast
Most of Minnesota started off seasonable Wednesday, with lows in the 50s and 60s, and just a few 40s along the northern border. Afternoon highs in the 80s will be close to average for southern Minnesota, but above average north.
Part of the warm weather is due to a southerly wind flow that turns breezy for western Minnesota by afternoon and also elevates the humidity.
A storm complex that moved across the Dakotas overnight is in central Minnesota as of 9 a.m., bringing heavy rain and the potential for isolated severe weather as it moves east.
Some of these storms should make it to the Twin Cities by late morning, although the activity expected to be less organized by then.
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Severe weather risk returns
The storms chances Wednesday are likely to miss northern Minnesota, but more widespread showers and storms impact the state Thursday and Friday.
This increase in instability is ahead of a storm system that will bring a cold front through Friday into early Saturday, based on the current timing. Along with the active weather, western Minnesota especially could see isolated severe weather Thursday, with a more scattered risk northwest. Then Friday, most of the state could see scattered areas of severe weather. Here are the severe weather outlooks through Friday, showing that increasing risk area:
Besides strong storms, periods of heavy rain are also likely. Much of Minnesota could see at least an inch of rain by Saturday morning, with higher totals likely north. This is the overall rain forecast, but under persistent storms there will be localized areas that could get several inches of rain:
It currently looks as though the rain starts clearing Saturday, with dry skies returning Sunday. We’ll update the timing of the rain and storms as the system approaches.
Temperatures
The warmer, more humid wind flow stays in place until the cold front moves through, keeping temperatures in the 80s for most of the state through Friday. However, temperatures will drop during periods of rain, and the additional cloud cover keeps the weather from getting too hot. More 70s move in over the weekend behind the front, and the cooler air could linger through at least the middle of next week.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:48 a.m. Monday through Friday morning.