Significant severe weather targets Minnesota

A strong cold front brings a severe weather and heavy rain risk through Friday followed by noticeably cooler weather.

Severe weather moves in

Most of Thursday stays dry with a mix of sunshine and clouds across the state. However, by late afternoon, a strong cold front starts pushing showers and storms into the northwestern corner of the state. 

Those storms push across northern Minnesota through the evening and bring a significant risk for severe weather including wind, hail, and heavy rain causing localized flooding. 

A few tornadoes are also possible.

The showers and storms continue to spread across the state through the overnight and into Friday. The severe weather becomes more scattered Friday (a slightly lower risk level) but a more widespread area sees the chance for strong storms.

In addition to the continued high wind. heavy rain, and isolated tornado risk, very large hail is a concern in central Minnesota.

For the Twin Cities, while there is a spotty chance for storms anytime Friday, the most likely timing for possible severe weather is Friday evening. In addition to any severe weather, periods of heavy rain are also likely. 

Much of Minnesota could see at least a half inch to an inch of rain by Saturday morning, with significantly higher totals likely north.

This is the overall rain forecast, but under persistent storms there will be localized areas that could get several inches of rain:

It currently looks like most of the rain should clear by Saturday morning. Skies clear across the state Saturday, with widespread sunshine back by Sunday. Dry skies then prevail the first part of next week.

Changing temperatures

A southeasterly wind flow plus mostly cloudy skies overnight had much of Minnesota starting Thursday warm and muggy, and it stays warm and humid through the day with most highs in the 80s. 

Combined with dew points in the 70s, the heat and humidity will push the heat index past 90 degrees for most of southern Minnesota Thursday afternoon. 

Friday, northern Minnesota sees more 70s due to the combination of the cold front moving through and clouds plus heavy rain keeping things cooler. 

Southern Minnesota will see another warm and humid day Friday, with more heat indices in the 90s likely, because the front moves through later in the day.

Behind the front, highs in the 70s become widespread over the weekend, and the cooler air could linger through at least the middle of next week.

Here is the extended forecast for the Twin Cities, showing that temperature trend (storms shown Saturday are for very early in the day/from the overnight Friday):

Humidity also returns to more comfortable levels behind the front.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:48 a.m. Monday through Friday morning.