Windy and warmer Monday; big waves possible on Lake Superior

Our Sunday high of 56 degrees at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 8 degrees cooler than our average high for Oct. 4. The sunshine and light winds made it an enjoyable fall day.

Temps ramp up on Monday, but so do the winds. Monday highs reach the 70s in much of western and south-central Minnesota. Parts of the Twin Cities metro area will top out around 70:

The north will see mainly 60s.

An approaching low pressure system will give us wind gusts of 25-35 mph in many areas on Monday:

Plotted values are in knots, with 29 knots equal to 33 mph.

Waves as high as 11 feet are possible on Lake Superior late Sunday night and Monday:

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Rain chances stay north

Scattered showers are possible in parts of northern Minnesota late Monday afternoon and Monday evening. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Monday afternoon through Monday evening:

There’s a chance that an isolated shower could drift over the metro area Monday evening.

Temperature trends

Highs in the 70s are forecast for much of central and southern Minnesota on Tuesday, with 60s to the north and east:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 70s on Tuesday, followed by mid 60s Wednesday and Thursday and then mid 70s on Friday.

We could see warmer than normal temps next weekend and into the middle of the following week. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a strong tendency for above-normal temps in Minnesota and Wisconsin from Oct. 10 through Oct. 14:

Gamma brings heavy rains to parts of Mexico

Tropical Storm Gamma will move very slowly the next few days, resulting in heavy rains across portions of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. Here’s Gamma’s forecast track, from the National Hurricane Center:

The Sunday afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center mentions the heavy rain potential:

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...GAMMA STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 87.8W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 87.8 West and has stalled just north of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gamma should slowly turn toward the west-southwest tonight or Monday, and a west-southwestward drift should continue Monday night through early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico today, and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin later tonight or on Monday and continue into Tuesday. Afterward, little change in strength is forecast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche and Tabasco. This rainfall may enhance any ongoing flash flooding and result in new areas of flash flooding into the middle of the week. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan through today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today through Monday.

Forecasters are also watching a disturbance south of Jamaica that could become a tropical cyclone and eventually a hurricane by midweek in the Gulf of Mexico:

2020 has been a very busy year for the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center!