Windy; thunderstorm chances increase Sunday evening

Mild temps and gusty winds are on tap for most areas today.

Sunday highs will range from the upper 50s in northeastern Minnesota to around 80 in far southwestern Minnesota:

Our average high is 61 this time of year in the Twin Cities. Some spots in the metro area may top 70 degrees this afternoon.

Winds pick up today, with gusts of 20-30 mph possible in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, and gusts over 35 mph in parts of western Minnesota:

Plotted values are in knots, with 21 knots equal to around 24 mph and 33 knots equal to around 38 mph.

I should mention that much higher gusts are possible near any thunderstorms that develop late this Sunday afternoon and this evening.

Sunday p.m. rain and thunder chances

Scattered showers are possible in northwestern Minnesota this morning and early afternoon, but the main event is later today.

Areas of rain and embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop in parts of western Minnesota by late Sunday afternoon. The rain/embedded t-storms will spread eastward into eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin as we go through Sunday evening and Sunday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours of Sunday night:

The best chance of rain/thunder in the Twin Cities metro area will be from Sunday evening into the overnight hours of Sunday night. We could end up with around one inch of much-needed rainfall.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk of severe weather late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night for much of west-central, southwestern and south-central Minnesota and into the western part of the Twin Cities metro area. Slight risk means that scattered severe t-storms are possible. SPC shows a marginal risk severe weather Sunday evening/Sunday night in much of northern Minnesota, the eastern portion of the metro area, plus southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

Here’s the NWS Twin Cities discussion of the Sunday afternoon/Sunday night severe weather potential, with the slight-risk area shaded yellow:

Note the thunderstorm chances in the Twin Cities metro area peak in the 8 p.m. to 11 p.m. time frame.

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Fall color update

Sunday leaf-peeping will be good across much of southern Minnesota and parts of central Minnesota, with spottier fall colors to the north. Here’s the latest fall color report from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources:

Keep in mind that all deciduous trees are included in the fall color report, not just maples.

The Wisconsin fall color report can be found here.

This Updraft blog will be updated by around 10 a.m., with updated Sunday forecast details and a look at the week ahead.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.