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COVID-19 continues its grim October ascent in Minnesota. The Health Department Thursday reported nearly 2,900 new cases — a daily record in the pandemic — and 32 more deaths, a near-record.

The newest numbers come toward the close of a troubling month. Hospitalizations, caseloads and deaths are rising steeply and seem poised to spill into November.

There are now more than 15,000 known active cases of COVID-19 in the state for the first time. That number has grown dramatically in the last week. 

The state is now averaging more than 2,000 newly confirmed cases each day, and officials on Thursday braced Minnesotans to expect that to be the new norm.

“The way things are going, I’m sorry to say, I don’t think that (daily case) record is going to hold for very long,” Minnesota Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm told reporters Thursday. 

The rampant spread is being driven now by the “thousands of seemingly small decisions” Minnesotans make daily to meet and gather with others without wearing masks, socially distancing or taking other steps to stem the spread, she said.

The current wave is especially worrisome because the state’s seeing cases rise again in long-term care facilities, where some of the state’s most vulnerable people live.

Despite efforts to protect those facilities, Minnesota saw 186 new cases in long-term care on Tuesday alone, said Kris Ehresmann, the state’s infectious disease director.

Many of these cases are due to community spread — health care workers getting infected outside the facilities then bringing it in. “Even with the flood walls we built up, if the waters rise high enough, we’ll still have big problems,” she said.

The deaths reported Thursday raised Minnesota’s toll to 2,419. Among those who’ve died, about 70 percent had been living in long-term care or assisted living facilities; most had underlying health problems.

Of the 142,311 cases of the disease confirmed in the pandemic to date, about 87 percent have recovered to the point they no longer need to be isolated.

Unlike earlier in the pandemic, health authorities believe the current outbreaks are being driven more by people letting their guard down at family gatherings and celebrations, sporting events and informal meetups rather than at stores, restaurants and bars. 

Officials had expected that late summer and early fall gatherings would bring a surge of cases in October. They also anticipated the wave would put more people in the hospital — and lead to more deaths. That’s come to pass. 

“We’re in a strengthening winter storm,” Malcolm said Wednesday, comparing the spread to a snowstorm where people must work together to keep everyone safe. 

She urged Minnesotans to pitch together and watch out for each other as they would in a snowstorm. In the case of COVID-19, it means wearing masks in public gathering spaces, social distancing and staying home if you feel ill.

New cases are up dramatically over the past month in all age groups.

People in their 20s still make up the age bracket with the state’s largest number of confirmed cases  — approaching 31,000 since the pandemic began, including more than 17,000 among people ages 20-24. 

The number of high school-age children confirmed with the disease has also grown, with more than 12,300 total cases among children ages 15 to 19 since the pandemic began. 

The numbers help explain why experts remain particularly concerned about teens and young adults as spreaders of the virus.

While less likely to feel the worst effects of the disease and end up hospitalized, experts worry youth and young adults will spread it to grandparents and other vulnerable populations. It’s especially concerning because people can have the coronavirus and spread COVID-19 when they don’t have symptoms. 

That led Gov. Tim Walz on Wednesday to urge

, a group he says is driving much of the asymptomatic virus spread.

"We want them to get tested so they can then know if they're infected so they can isolate,” added Dan Huff, an assistant state health commissioner. “That will help us stop that source of transmission in an area we just see as a major reservoir for the disease spreading out through the state."

Cases surging along Minnesota’s western border

Regionally, central and northern Minnesota have driven much of the recent increase in new cases while Hennepin and Ramsey counties show some of the slowest case growth in the state. 

Newly reported cases are highest in western Minnesota. The data doesn’t explain why. However, cases are surging currently in the Dakotas. North Dakota has the country’s worst per-capita spread rate.

North Dakota has had more new cases per capita than any other state over the past two weeks, according to the COVID Tracking Project. South Dakota, which ranks second in new cases per capita, broke its hospitalization record Tuesday for the third straight day.

Collectively, rural areas of Minnesota continue to report the most new COVID-19 cases.

Northern Minnesota, once the region least affected by the disease, has also seen its caseload grow dramatically in recent weeks. Northwestern Minnesota continues to see cases rise swiftly relative to it population. 

“We are seeing more deaths in greater Minnesota because we are seeing more cases there,”  Ehresmann said last week. “We will see more and more deaths from greater Minnesota because of the high caseload.”

Wednesday’s data also revealed a startling number close to the Twin Cities: 339 new cases in Wright County over the past week, a 14 percent increase in total cases.

In Minnesota and across the country, COVID-19 has hit 

communities of color disproportionately hard

Minnesotans of Hispanic descent are testing positive for COVID-19 at about five times the rate of white Minnesotans. They, along with Black Minnesotans, are also being hospitalized and moved to intensive care units at higher rates than the overall population.

Similar trends hold true for Minnesota’s Indigenous residents. Counts among Indigenous people have jumped in October relative to population. The number of new COVID-19 cases among Native Americans has 

grown by about 75 percent in recent weeks

October data also show newly confirmed cases accelerating among Latino people in Minnesota.

, together with deeply rooted health and economic disparities, have hampered efforts to boost testing among communities of color, particularly for unauthorized immigrants who fear their personal information may be used to deport them. 

The newest numbers come two days after Walz and public health experts painted an increasingly worrisome picture of a COVID-19 outbreak now driven more by people letting their guard down at family gatherings and celebrations, sporting events and informal meetups rather than at stores, restaurants and bars.

The governor’s top health officers again urged Minnesotans to rethink their plans for large family gatherings at Thanksgiving and other upcoming holidays, warning they pose a rising risk.

Given the current high levels of community spread in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest, get-togethers of “large extended families, multiple families from around the region, that absolutely would be a really, really bad idea this year,” Ehresmann said Monday.

There have been more than 70 related outbreaks from weddings since June, and that's lead to more than 674 direct cases among those attending, and one death, Malcolm said Wednesday.

The “vast majority” of COVID-19 spread is coming from these kinds of events, said Ehresmann. “Things that were relatively safe a month or two ago are no longer safe." 

Ehresmann reiterated that point Wednesday as she cautioned Minnesotans against attending big Halloween parties and other events outside of a person’s immediate household. That kind of fun, she said, "is riskier now than it was a month ago.”

Here’s what to do

Anoka-Hennepin board votes to continue sports, defying guidelines

 to keep high school sports and other activities going, even as they close the schools to in-person learning.

The district decided last week to move to distance learning for middle and high school students in response to rising COVID-19 cases. State guidance says schools have to at least meet guidelines for in-person instruction to offer sports and other out-of-class activities.

But citing athletic staff belief that COVID-19 can be managed among high school teams, and indications that nonschool teams will play anyway, school board members voted to defy state guidelines.

Board member Jeff Simon said he believed kids were going to participate anyway, and school was the best place for it.

“They're involved with and charged with and concerned about individual health and containing the spread of COVID-19, so continuing activities under the current structure following the Minnesota high school league recommendations for safe participation really allows the state a continued voice and management of the activity process going forward.” 

District Superintendent David Law also told board members that there may be other districts that are defying the guidelines as well.

Asked about the school board’s move Tuesday morning, Gov. Tim Walz said he will take up the issue, adding that he will put a priority on public health.

“I understand the desire to make sure these activities stay available for kids. I have an eighth grader that I want to see playing these things. But we also have to manage it with the public health,” he said. 

Walz said the state Health and Education Departments will communicate with Anoka-Hennepin schools, but didn’t elaborate on what the departments would be telling the state’s largest district.

“But I do need to stress that the health and safety of both students, those educators and the community always hold precedence,” Walz said.

State plans to launch COVID-19 testing effort among young adults:

 Those between the ages of 18 to 35 represent the largest number of new cases in Minnesota right now — and Gov. Tim Walz said people within that age group who are infected with COVID-19 but don’t have any symptoms are driving much of the virus’ spread in the state.

Pandemic may add to misery of seasonal affective disorder, but strategies can help:

 Those used to struggling with seasonal depression have plans for how to feel better during the pandemic in winter.

What one school board’s decision to ‘let them play’ means for Minnesota:

 Anoka-Hennepin officials learned that community uproar over canceling sports is much more intense than concern over canceling in-person classes.

5 tips — and a bunch of ideas — to help you celebrate Halloween safely this year:

 Many traditional Halloween traditions, like trick-or-treating, involve face-to-face interactions with lots of different people. But this year, in order to prevent the spread and protect each other from COVID-19, some parts of Halloween may need a little updating.

Data in these graphs are based on the Minnesota Department of Health's cumulative totals released at 11 a.m. daily. You can find more detailed statistics on COVID-19 at the 

How it compares with other diseases in 5 charts

Full coverage of the coronavirus pandemic

Minnesota and the Upper Midwest

Minnesota News

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The new numbers come toward the close of a troubling October. Hospitalizations, caseloads and double-digit daily deaths are rising steeply and seem poised to spill into November. 

COVID-19 continues its grim October ascent in Minnesota. The Health Department Thursday reported nearly 2,900 new cases — a daily record in the pandemic — and 32 more deaths, a near-record. All this while the two presidential candidates plan to visit Minnesota on Friday. MPR News reporter Catharine Richert provides an update on All Things Considered.

Daily COVID-19 cases shatter record; 32 more deaths

A person wearing a face mask watches someone speaking.

Christine T. Nguyen | MPR News file

Active, confirmed COVID-19 cases in Minnesota

David H. Montgomery | MPR News

New COVID-19 hospitalizations in Minnesota

New COVID-19 related deaths reported in Minnesota each day

Graph of new ICU and non-ICU COVID-19 hospitalizations

New Minnesota COVID-19 cases by age, adjusted for population

Percent of COVID-19 tests to come back positive

MN counties with the fastest per-capita growth in COVID-19 cases

Oct. 29 update on COVID-19 in MN: Daily cases shatter record; 32 more deaths

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