Rain at times on Monday; colder with snow or a mix on Tuesday

The peak wind gust Sunday afternoon at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 42 mph. Several spots in Minnesota reported even higher gusts.

The official Twin Cities high temperature was 72 degrees on Sunday. Our Twin Cities high temperature has reached the 70s on five of the past six days. That’s very unusual, since our average high temp is only 46 degrees this time of year!

Monday highs

A cold front will move across Minnesota on Monday, but the Twin Cities metro area could reach the upper 60s to around 70 before metro temperatures start falling Monday afternoon. Metro area temps could be in the lower 50s by sunset on Monday. Highs on Monday will range from the 30s in far northwestern Minnesota to around 70 in far southeastern Minnesota:

Monday rain

Periods of rain are expected across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Monday, with snow or a rain/snow mix in northwestern Minnesota.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Monday and Monday evening:

There could also be a few thunderstorms in Minnesota and western Wisconsin Monday and Monday evening.

Tuesday snow potential

A stripe of snow may accumulate from southwestern Minnesota to northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin on Tuesday. I wouldn’t be surprised if some spots in the Twin Cities metro area see an inch or so of snow Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Parts of Minnesota and western Minnesota could see a couple of inches of new snow. Temperatures in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere will be the key….some areas may see a mix of rain and snow for part of Tuesday. Check those forecast updates on Monday.

Cooler temps

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the Upper 30s on Tuesday, followed by lower 40s Wednesday and around 40 Thursday and Friday. That may sound really chilly, but those temps are much more typical of November than our recent highs.

South Florida braces for Eta

Tropical storm Eta was centered about 90 miles south of Miami Sunday evening, and Eta was moving northwestward. According to the National Hurricane Center:

Eta is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday

“tonight” refers to Sunday night. Hurricane warnings have been issued for the Florida Keys, with tropical storm warnings elsewhere in south Florida. Here’s the National Hurricane Center’s forecast track for Eta:

This is the Sunday evening Eta update:

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 34A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING SPREADING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 80.1W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF MARATHON FLORIDA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Bonita Beach to Card Sound Bridge A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by National Weather Service Doppler radar near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 80.1 West. Eta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next few hours, followed by a turn toward the west later tonight. A slower west-southwestward motion is forecast Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been reported along much of the southeast Florida coast during the past few hours. A National Ocean Service station on Virginia Key recently reported sustained winds of 36 mph (58 km/h) with a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h). A WeatherFlow station at Morningside Park just north of downtown Miami recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (82 km/h). An elevated site at Port Everglades reported a 50 mph (80 km/h) sustained wind and a 65 mph (105 km/h) gust within the past hour or so. Farther north, a WeatherFlow site near Juno Beach reported a wind gust of 49 mph (79 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday morning: Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm). The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: storm totals of 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm). Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding is also possible for Central Florida. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...2-4 ft Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-3 ft Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the Florida Keys tonight with hurricane conditions expected in a portion of the Florida Keys by early Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning areas in the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula through early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Florida by Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening through Monday over south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

The NWS National Hurricane Center updates it’s forecast every few hours.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.