Weekend forecast: Temps near normal; light snow or a mix Saturday night into Sunday a.m.

Snow has melted, but we're ahead of our normal pace

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Thursday afternoon at Bde Mka Ska, Minneapolis
Ron Trenda | MPR News

On my Thursday afternoon drive through St. Paul and Minneapolis, I noticed that the snow has pretty much melted in most areas. I saw just a bit of snow in a few spots that don’t receive afternoon sunshine.

We’ve seen two significant dumpings of snow this autumn in the Twin Cities. Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport tallied 7.9 inches of new snow on Oct. 20 and 5.5 inches on Nov. 10.

When you add in a few minor snow events, our official Twin Cities season snowfall total sits at 17.6 inches:

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Twin Cities climate data
National Weather Service

That’s 12.2 inches higher than our average Twin Cities snowfall total for this point in our snow season!

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An early start to our snow season doesn’t necessary mean that we’ll have a lot of snow in the coming months. The Minnesota State Climatology Office posted some interesting info on that topic.

Weekend temps and winds

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 38 degrees on Nov. 21. The Twin Cities metro area highs will probably hit around 40 degrees Saturday. Highs are forecast to reach the 40s in southern and west-central Minnesota, with 30s elsewhere:

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Saturday forecast highs
National Weather Service

We’ve had three consecutive weekends with at least one really windy day. That streak ends this weekend, with wind gusts of only 8-16 mph in most areas on Saturday:

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Saturday noon forecast wind gusts
National Weather Service

Plotted values are in knots, with 7 knots equal to 8 mph and 14 knots equal to 16 mph.

Back to temperatures, Sunday highs are forecast to reach the 30s in the north with lower 40s from far southern Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin:

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Sunday forecast highs
National Weather Service

It’ll be a bit breezy on Sunday, but it won’t be nearly as windy as our recent weekend days. Sunday wind gusts will be in the 18-24 mph range in many spots:

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Sunday noon forecast wind gusts
National Weather Service

Snow or a mix Saturday night into early Sunday

Snow or a mix of light rain and snow could move into western Minnesota Saturday evening, then spread eastward as it transitions to mostly snow Saturday night. Light snow may linger into Sunday morning in parts of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Saturday evening through Sunday morning:

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Simulated radar Saturday evening through Sunday morning
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

Some spots in central and northern Minnesota could see an inch or two of snow Saturday night into early Sunday. Any snow accumulation in the Twin Cities metro area Saturday night and early Sunday would be very minimal.

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

The coming week

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 40 Monday and Tuesday, followed by lower 40s Wednesday and Thursday. We could see a mix of rain and snow Monday night and Tuesday.

Computer models do not agree on the track of the low pressure system that could bring us our rain and/or snow Monday night and Tuesday. Check forecast updates in case that low pressure system becomes more significant for portions of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.