A nice Monday; rain/snow mix Monday night and Tuesday

Monday will feature some typical late-November weather. Highs will be mainly in the 30s, with some 20s in far northern Minnesota and a few lower 40s to the southwest:

Our average Twin Cities high temp is 37 degrees this time of year, so upper 30s aren’t unusual at all.

Winds will be fairly light Monday morning, then they pick up a bit in the afternoon, with gusts of 14-24 mph:

Plotted values are in knots, with 12 knots equal to 14 mph and 20 knots equal to around 23 mph.

Monday night and Tuesday snow potential

The picture is becoming a bit clearer on the snow potential Monday night and Tuesday. A mix of rain and snow moves into southwestern Minnesota Monday evening, then changes to all snow as it spreads across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin overnight Monday night. Some areas will see the snow change to a mix again on Tuesday and then to rain, while other areas stay mainly snow.

The Twin Cities metro area will probably see snow early Tuesday morning, then a late morning rain/snow mix followed by mainly rain Tuesday afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Monday evening through Tuesday evening:

Parts of the Twin Cities metro area could see an inch or two of snow on Tuesday before it transitions to rain. There will be also be some 1-2 inch amounts elsewhere in eastern Minnesota. Parts of western Wisconsin could end up with 2-3 inches of snow Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Here’s the NWS forecast of 2”+ snow potential:

Here’s a closer look at the snow forecast in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin:

If the air is a bit cooler there will be less rain, and snow amounts will be higher.

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

By the way, no big storms are expected in Minnesota or western Wisconsin Wednesday through Friday.

Temperature trends

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 30s Tuesday, then around 40 Wednesday and lower 40s on Thanksgiving, followed by upper 30s on Friday.

Temps rebound a bit next Saturday, then we may see several mild days at the end of Nov. and into early Dec. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a tendency for above normal temperatures in Minnesota and Wisconsin from Nov. 28 through Dec. 2:

Keep in mind that our average high temp is in the 30s this time of year, so even highs in the 40s are above normal.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.