Flake chances favor the north Sunday p.m.; mild temps until Wed.
Ice thickness guidelines revisited
We aren’t expecting any drastic temperature changes this weekend.
Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 26 degrees on Dec. 19. The metro area will top out close to 30 degrees this Saturday. Much of Minnesota will see Saturday highs in the 20s, with lower 30s from far southern Minnesota into west-central and southwestern Wisconsin. Winds will be light in most areas, but a bit gusty in northwestern Minnesota Saturday afternoon.
Temperature trends
Sunday highs will be mainly in the 30s, with some 20s in far northern Minnesota and a few 40s in parts of southwestern Minnesota:
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Most of the Twin Cities metro area will reach the upper 30s Sunday afternoon.
Sunday wind gusts are expected to be in the 12-20 mph range:
Plotted values are in knots, with 11 knots equal to around 13 mph and 17 knots equal to about 20 mph.
Back to temperatures, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 30s on Monday, then around 40 degrees on Tuesday. We may top out in the upper 20s Wednesday morning, with falling temps by Wednesday afternoon. Highs in the mid-teens are expected in the metro area on Thursday, followed by around 20 on Friday,
Snow chances
Far northern Minnesota could see scattered light snow showers Saturday night
There will be a chance of light snow showers in northwestern Minnesota late Sunday afternoon. That snow chance expands over much of northern and central Minnesota plus western Wisconsin Sunday night. Snow may linger in northeastern Minnesota on Monday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Sunday afternoon through Monday morning:
Parts of the Twin Cities metro area may see some flakes overnight Sunday night and early on Monday.
Here’s the NWS depiction of snowfall potential:
You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.
Some forecast models show snow for northern and central Minnesota plus northwestern Wisconsin from late Tuesday night into Wednesday. A few models include the Twin Cities metro area in that accumulating snow. We’ll have more details on that potential snow in the coming days.
Ice safety
This is a good time for a reminder about ice safety. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources shows the minimum ice thickness that you should look for before venturing out on lakes, rivers or ponds:
According to the Minnesota DNR:
For new, clear ice only
UNDER 4" - STAY OFF
4" - Ice fishing or other activities on foot
5" - 7" - Snowmobile or ATV
8" - 12" - Car or small pickup
12" - 15" - Medium truck
The DNR adds this note of caution:
Double the above thickness guidelines when traveling on white ice
White ice or "snow ice" is only about half as strong as new clear ice. Double the above thickness guidelines when traveling on white ice. Many factors other than thickness can cause ice to be unsafe
Currents in lakes and rivers and other factors can reduce ice thicknesses. Ice thicknesses can vary by several inches over a distance of a few yards. Check the linked DNR site for more details.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.